Another Day, Another Major Endorsement

There's a hole in the Republican dam which keeps growing and growing. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell jumped through the hole on Meet the Press last Sunday and former George W. Bush Press Secretary jumped through on CNN's new D.L Hughley show this weekend. Now Former US Senator Larry Pressler (R-SD) (pictured above on the left) has joined the growing number of GOPers who have endorsed Barack Obama. You may be saying, "who the hell is Larry Pressler?" Well, you're not alone. Pressler was a three term US Senator from South Dakota. What makes his endorsement newsworthy is the fact that he was the first Vietnam veteran to serve in the United States Senate and a Republican Senate colleague of John McCain for 10 years.

Pressler did two tours of duty in Vietnam from 1966 to 1968 and was awarded the prestigious Bronze Star. He served as head of the Senate Commerce Committee during the Clinton years, and he was instrumental in the passage of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 (the first major overhaul of telecommunications law in 60 years.) Pressler was defeated in an attempt at a fourth term by current United States Senator Tim Johnson.

Pressler said, "I just got the feeling that Obama will be able to handle this financial crisis better, and I like his financial team of (former Treasury Secretary Robert) Rubin and (former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul) Volcker better," he said. He told Politico that Republican presidential nominee John McCain's "handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous." Pressler said this is his first vote for a Democrat for president. "I feel really badly. I just hate to go against someone I served with in the Senate," he said. "I voted and I got it mailed and I dropped it in the mailbox, and it tore at me to do that." Pressler also said he donated $500.00 to the Obama campaign. Ouch!

Obama Leads in Newspaper Endorsements 170-69

As of today, Barack Obama leads John McCain in the newspaper endorsement race 170 to 69. Obama's major endorsements this weekend include the Hartford Courant, the St. Petersburg Times, the Providence Journal, the Anchorage Daily News, the Des Moines Register, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, the Baltimore Sun, the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, and the Albany Times-Union. McCain picked up the Cincinnati Enquirer and the Arizona Republic.

Obama's lopsided margin, including most of the major papers that have decided so far, is in stark contrast to John Kerry barely edging George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004 by 213 to 205. The circulation number of newspapers which have endorsed Obama exceeds 15 million, whereas the circulation number for McCain is around 4 million.

We know that newspapers don't vote and that newspaper editors, may as a whole, but more liberal than their readers, but what is striking about this number is that George W. Bush had almost as many endorsements in 2004 as did John Kerry. Also, thirty-eight newspapers which endorsed Bush in 2004 have switched to endorsing Obama in 2008. Most notably, the Denver Post, the New Haven Register, the Chicago Tribune, the New York Daily News, the Houston Chronicle, the Salt Lake Tribune, and the Wisconsin State Journal have switched from Bush to Obama. The Los Angeles Times and the Cleveland Plain Dealer did not endorse in 2004, but this year they have endorsed Obama.

The only newspapers with a circulation of over 40,000 that have endorsed McCain in 2008 after endorsing Kerry in 2004 are the Bradenton (Florida Herald (48K circulation), the Corpus Christi Caller-Times (53K circulation), and the Daily Press (Newport News, Virginia) (91K circulation). The Wasington DC Examiner (100K circulation) did not endorse in 2004, but endorsed McCain in 2008.

Pennsylvania - Bob Barr Country

As goes Pennsylvania, so goes the nation... Not exactly. When Buzz and I started OneVoteCounts, we had planned on doing a comprehensive, in depth, no stone unturned analysis of the Presidential race in Pennsylvania. We figured that Pennsylvania would be close (one or two percentage points,) and we also figured the electoral vote totals would be close, and thus Pennsylvania was a must win for Obama if he hoped to reach 270. As we approach single digits in the election day countdown, it appears that even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, he may still lose the election.

First, here's a little Pennsylvania Presidential election history. Since 1948, Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic candidate 8 times and for the Republican 7 times. 11 out of 15 times, PA has gone with the winner. PA went with the losing candidate four times. They were Dewey in 48, Humphrey in 72, Gore in 00, and Kerry in 04. George H. W. Bush was the last Republican to win the state in 88.

Today's realclearpolitics (RCP) average in PA is 11.0 in Obama's favor (51.5 to 40.5). This number has been in the double digits for the last few weeks, despite McCain pouring millions of dollars into Pennsylvania. It should be noted that Obama is out spending McCain in PA, as he is everywhere else. What is troubling for those who believe McCain has a chance in PA is the fact that McCain hasn't lead in a statewide poll since April. Only two of the 12 polls this month showed Obama's lead under 10 points, and those leads were 7 and 8 points. There also is no indication of any significant narrowing of the gap by McCain. We do note the number has dropped from a high of 13 a week ago, but if that is a trend, McCain would have to continue that for another seven weeks and he only has 10 days to the election.

The problem McCain faces by drawing a line in the sand with Pennsylvania is that Pennsylvania may not matter to Obama. Obama has solid leads in all the states John Kerry carried in 2004. This puts Obama at 252 (including PA). Starting with the 252 number, Obama has an RCP average lead of 8.4 in New Mexico (5EV), 7.0 in Virginia (7EV), 6.6 in Ohio (20EV), and 5.4 in Colorado (9EV). This would put Obama at 293 (270 is the magic number). If McCain wins PA and all the other toss up states not listed above, Obama would still have 272 electoral votes.

Here's some more bad news for McCain. Five other states Florida (27EV), North Carolina (15EV), Nevada (5EV), Missouri (11EV), and Indiana (11EV) show Obama leading in the RCP average. That's another 69 electoral votes.

Polls are not 100% accurate, but even if we throw out half of them and just give those states to McCain, he still loses.

The Pennsylvania or die strategy is difficult for McCain. The more money and time he spends in Pennsylvania, the less time and money he has to spend elsewhere. Even if by some peculiar set of circumstances McCain does win PA, it just may not matter. Pennsylvania is the only Kerry 04 state (maybe New Hampshire (4EV)) where McCain is waging a battle. All the rest of the fights are on Bush 04 territory. Obama is bringing the battle to McCain home turf, and there are just too many states for McCain to defend with his limited budget. Obama can, has, and will continue to outspend McCain.

The bottom line is this. Obama wins PA. The revised OVC prediction has just been handed to me by Buzz. (I say revised, because Buzz, an ardent Bob Barr supporter, had fudged the original numbers to show Barr winning PA, with Obama and McCain coming 3rd and 4th behind Ralph Nader.) Gore won PA by 4.5% in 00, Kerry won by 2.4% in 04. The OVC revised prediction is 53.5 % for Obama, 45.0 % for McCain and 1.5% for the two other candidates.

Early Voting Looks Good for Obama

In a close election, it's all about getting your voters to actually get out and vote. George W. Bush did this very effectively in 2004. His "get out the vote" (GOTV) effort helped him defeat John Kerry by a little over 3,000,000 votes. Barack Obama realized this very early in his campaign and has put together a ground game that, so far, is looking even better than the 2004 Bush GOTV.

Poll after poll has shown that voter enthusiasm is much higher for Obama than John McCain. The big question is whether or not this enthusiasm will translate into votes. We have the first evidence that this enthusiasm is indeed resulting in people getting out to vote.

According to the Associated Press, in North Carolina, blacks make up 31 percent of early voters so far, even though they're just 21 percent of the population and made up only 19 percent of state's overall 2004 vote. In Georgia roughly 36 percent of the early voters are black , outpacing their 30 percent proportion of the state's population and their 25 percent share of the 2004 vote. In Louisiana, more than 31 percent of the early voters are black, and Democrats are topping Republicans nearly 2-to-1. In the crucial battleground state of Florida, nearly 55 percent of early voters are registered Democrats — well above their 41 percent share of the electorate in the Sunshine State.

Although we do not have any results, and will not have any until the polls close on November 4th, we do know that polls show that Obama should receive about 88 percent of the Democratic vote and 92 percent of the African-American vote.

If these trends continue, this election will not be close.

McCain-Palin R.I.P.

It's all over but the shouting. And shouting we will see --- at least from McCain, Palin, and company. On election night 2000, the late Tim Russert held up a small white board with three words written on it. He had written "Florida, Florida, Florida." This year it's "Penn-no-chance-in-hell-for-McCain-sylvania, Io-long-since-gone-wa, Colo-bama-rado, Ohi-down-double-digit-o, North-we-can't-be-losing-there-Carolina, and Indi-oh-my-God-we're-gonna-lose-here-too-ana." A series of polls which have come out today have written the McCain-Palin obituary. With 12 days to go, even Harry Truman couldn't pull this one off.

Eight new Big 10 battleground polls came out today, and McCain's got Obama "right where he wants him." Here are the numbers: Obama leads in all, Illinois 62-32, Pennsylvania 52-41, Michigan 58-36, Minnesota 57-38, Wisconsin 53-40, Iowa 52-39, Indiana 51-41, and Ohio 52-41. There's also a Quinnipiac poll from Ohio that shows Obama up 52-38. Realclearpolitics.com has also, for the first time, moved Ohio from toss up to Leaning Obama. (For those of you not familiar with Realclearpolitics, they average all reputable polls together to come up with their RCP average.)

It won't be long to paraphrase Martin Luther King, Jr, when we can all join in a chorus of "Back in Alaska, back in Alaska, thank God Almighty Palin's back in Alaska."

We Broke Our Promise

Question: What's the difference between a pit bull and a hockey mom? Answer: A $150,000.00 wardrobe. Buzz and I had promised to not write about Governor Sarah Palin, but two tidbits from yesterday were too good to pass up. First, it has come to light that the Republican National Committee (RNC) has spent $150,000 on clothes and accessories for Palin and her family. Second, in news that must come as a shock to the eight living Senate majority leaders, pictured above, the Vice President, according to Palin, is "in charge" of the United States Senate.

According to Politico.com, the Republican National Committee has spent more than $150,000.00 to clothe and accessorize Palin and her family since she was picked by John McCain as his running mate. "The accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74. The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September. The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August." That's a lot of lipstick!

The McCain camp's initial response was: "The campaign does not comment on strategic decisions regarding how financial resources available to the campaign are spent." After questions about the legality of the expenditures were raised, the campaign revised its remarks. "With all of the important issues facing the country right now, it’s remarkable that we’re spending time talking about pantsuits and blouses," said spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt. "It was always the intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign."

For a woman who claims she's just a "hockey mom," we must assume that her definition of "hockey mom" is a little different than ours. Remember the flack John Edwards got for his $400 haircut or Hillary Clinton got for two hairstyling sessions that cost $3000. For someone who claims she's just one of us, like Joe the Plumber, she has in the words of Ricky Ricardo "some 'splainin' to do."

Clothinggate is not a major issue, but it is a bit amusing. What is more troubling is her response to a question asked during an interview with KUSA-TV in Denver. In a feature called "Question from the Third Grade." The interviewer asked, "Brandon Garcia wants to know, 'What does the vice president do?'"

Palin's response is as follows:

"That’s something that [my 7-year-old daughter] Piper would ask me! That's a great question, Brandon, and a vice president has a really great job, because not only are they there to support the president's agenda, they're like the team member, the team mate to that president, but also, they're in charge of the United States Senate, so if they want to they can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes that will make life better for Brandon and his family and his classroom. And it's a great job and I look forward to having that job," she said.

We really don't have a problem with the first part of the answer. The Vice President can be said to be a "team mate to that President, but the second part of the answer is just wrong. This is not the first time Palin has been asked about the job of the Vice President.

Palin was originally asked in July if she was interested in the job of Vice President. She said she would first have to know "what the Vice President did every day." She was asked a similar question during the Vice Presidential debate. She responded. "Of course, we know what a Vice President does. And that's not only to preside over the Senate and will take that position very seriously also. I'm thankful the Constitution will allow a bit more authority given to the Vice President if that Vice President so chose to exert it in working with the Senate and making sure that we are supportive of the President's policies and making sure too that our President understands what are strengths are."

Article 1, Section 3 of the US Constitution states "(T)he Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided." Article 2, Section 1 states "(I)n Case of the Removal of the President from Office, or of his Death,Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office, the same shall devolve on the Vice President." Amendment 12 states "the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President." Amendment 20 states "if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified." And finally, Amendment 25 states (I)n case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President." Or in the case of disability of the President, Presidential "powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President."

These are the only places in the Constitution where the job or duties of the Vice President are mentioned. So in short, he or she presides over the senate and breaks tie votes, and takes over if the President can't perform his or her duties. He or she is not "in charge of the Senate." Even Dick Cheney, who had some unusual views on he Vice President realized that he was not "in charge"of the Senate. In fact, Cheney's most memorable moment in the Senate was when he told Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) to "go fuck yourself" in June of 2004.

Buzz and I may be a little old fashioned, but we believe before you seek a job the least you should do is know what the job duties are, especially if they are listed in a multitude of place (including every 5th Grade Social Studies book.)

Two Weeks.... and counting

Two weeks to go and things haven’t picked up for McCain. The Joe the Plumber strategy is just more “preaching to the choir.” Joe may soon have his own show on Fox News. I believe he has already moved into the Fox News studio. Joe’s economics lessons have helped simpletons throughout the nation (Palin included) to realize that Obama is a “socialist.”

Here’s a redefinition of our categories. Safe is defined as an average poll lead of 10.0 points or more, Solid is a poll average of 5.0 points to 9.9 points, and Leaning is defined as 3.0 to 4.9 point average lead. Toss Up states are defined as a state which either candidate leads by less than a 3.0 poll average. For those of you not as electorally savvy as Buzz or me, the magic number is 270 electoral votes.

Our 2008 Presidential Election Prediction, where we will pick both the electoral vote total and the popular vote total, is at the end of the article.

Safe Obama (239)

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11),

Solid Obama (38)

Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10).

Leaning Obama (14)

Colorado (9), Nevada (5),

Safe McCain (137)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3).

Solid McCain (18)

Georgia (15), Montana (3),

Leaning McCain (11)

Indiana (11).

Toss Up (81)

Florida (27), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Ohio (20), West Virginia (5).

Solid Obama and Safe Obama (277) Solid and Safe McCain (155)

Obama with Leaners (291) McCain with Leaners (166)


Now here’s the two week out prediction Obama 364 electoral votes, McCain 174 electoral votes. Our prediction on the popular vote is Obama 53 percent, McCain 46 percent,