On to Nevada

Senator Amy Klobuchar in Concord, NH on election night

Former Vice President Joe Biden skipped town before the polls closed in New Hampshire, but Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar stayed around to bask in her surprising Third place finish.  Senator Elizabeth Warren and Biden, two of the early Democratic front runners, finished distant fourth and fifth, respectively.  Biden's 8.4 percent share of the Democratic vote was even surpassed on the Republican side by former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld's 9.1 percent.  For those of you keeping score, President Donald Trump got 85.5 percent of the GOP vote, compared to former President Ronald Reagan's 86 percent in 1984.

The race now moves to the Nevada caucuses on February 22nd and the South Carolina primary on February 29th.  Biden is banking on a strong showing in Nevada, followed by a win in South Carolina, but the strength of former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Klobuchar may put a big dent in the Bidenmobile.  Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Biden appeal to a similar demographic on the political spectrum (they're the perceived moderates, whereas Senator Bernie Sanders and Warren are the liberals.)  Since Warren has had some wind taken out of her sails in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders may be in a stronger position in this fickle, momentum-driven primary process.

What's Next

New Hampshire has winnowed the Democratic field.  Businessman Andrew Yang, Colorado Senator Michael Bennett, and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick have all "suspended" (dropped out) their campaigns.  On the Republican side, former Congressman Joe Walsh dropped out before New Hampshire, but Weld will continue his long-shot effort.

Biden has a 3.5 percent lead in the Realclearpolitics.com average over Sanders, but there has been no serious polling done in Nevada in over a month.  Back when the last polls were taken, in early January, Biden was leading in almost all national polls and the public had not seen his poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.  There has also been an apparent drop in Biden's African American support, a key constituency for Biden, and a group that can make up to 60 percent of South Carolina Democratic primary voters.

Stay tuned for a special onevotecounts campaign diary with a heck of a lot of photos.

On the ground in New Hampshire

Hopefully, the rain won't hurt the rhubarb or Mayor Pete Buttigieg's impending New Hampshire primary victory.  Buzz and I decided to do what any good reporting duo would do when inclement weather hits, we hit Castro's Backroom in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire for a cigar.  (We're not Jim Cantore and this ain't the Weather Channel.)  And by the way, for our conservative readers, despite the Castro name, we didn't find Bernie Sanders here.

Mayor Pete's momentum has seemed to slow in the daily tracking polls, but Buzz's calculations on the Univac 3000 still predict a Mayor Pete victory. Although the more intriguing stories are the rise of Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and the fall of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden.  Klobuchar is looking to finish a strong third, while Biden and Warren are looking at fourth and fifth place.  Biden is looking to salvage his campaign with a respectable showing in the Nevada caucuses (February 22nd)  and a win in the South Carolina primary (February 29th,) but New Hampshire may be the end of the road for Warren.

For a brief shining moment a few months back, Warren was looking good, but she seems to be a victim of 21st Century politics.  She is one of the best candidates on "paper," but, for better or worse, we are living in a sound bite era.  All the position papers and well-formulated policies aren't hitting home with the current voters who are more influenced by their hearts than their minds. 

Buzz has crunched the numbers, and here's his bold prediction of the order of finish in the Granite State.  Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Gabbard, and Steyer. 

We're going to hit the streets and look for some buzz. 

On the Republican side, President Donald Trump supporters have been lining up outside the arena for Trump's rally since early this morning.  Although there are 17 candidates on the Republican ballot, Buzz has predicted that Trump will see upwards of 94 percent of the Republican vote.  Former Massachusetts governor WilliamWeld will finish a distant second.  Buzz has calculated his finish at 1.7 percent of the vote.

We're going to brave the weather and hit the streets.  God willing and the creek don't rise, we'll end our day in Dixville Notch.  The votes will be in shortly after midnight from this little hamlet near the Canadian border.  All five voters cast their ballots and the votes will be counted by 12:10 AM.

Stay tuned.