As Goes Dixville Notch, so Goes the Nation

Dixville Notch polling place

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire may have the first say in the nation in Presidential politics, but it is certainly not the last.  The tiny hamlet in Northern New Hampshire, just a few miles from the Canadian border cast their ballots in the Presidential election and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg won on both sides. 

After failing to secure a single vote in Dixville Notch, President Donald Trump immediately tweeted that the residents of Dixville Notch are "stupid" and should "good back to Canada."  Just kidding.

Dixville Notch

Dixville Notch first jumped into the national spotlight with its midnight voting in the 1960 Presidential election, when then-Vice President Richard Nixon shut out Senator John Kennedy nine to zip.  Since then, the residents of Dixville Notch continue to vote in the Presidential primary and general elections at the stroke of midnight.  They vote, the polls are closed, they count the votes, and then they announce about 10 minutes after midnight.  As always, the voters are greatly outnumbered by members of the media.

The voting takes place on the grounds of The Balsams, a beautiful 11,000-acre mountain resort originally built-in 1875.  Until this year, the voting took place in the main building of the resort, which has been shuttered since new owners took over in 2011.  The new owners have been trying to obtain financing to renovate and expand the resort's ski area.  As of last night, none of the expansion or renovation has begun, and it was a very eerie feeling driving up to and passing the shuttered resort.  Civilization re-appeared when we saw lights, about fifty cars parked alongside the road, and the satellite news trucks.

Bloomberg wins

Bloomberg garnered the only vote on the Republican side and two of the four votes on the Democratic side.  Senator Bernie Sanders and Mayor Pete Buttigieg both captured a single vote.  The Bloomberg votes were write-ins, because Bloomberg entered the race too late to qualify for the New Hampshire primary. (There were 33 candidates on the Democratic side and 17 on the Republican side.)

Bloomberg has pretty much ignored New Hampshire, unlike the multitude of candidates who hve been holding events throughout the state for more than a year.  Bloomberg has, however, spent over $200 million on television advertising, primarily in Super Tuesday states.  (Super Tuesday is the Super Bowl of primary days, where more than one-third of the Democratic delegates are up for grabs in states like Texas, Virginia, California, and Massachusetts.  Super Tuesday is March 3rd this year.)

The results of Dixville Notch are not always are a good predictor of who will win the nomination, and if you don't believe us, just ask President Wesley Clark (he won in 2004) and President John Kasich (he won in 2016,) but the votes and the interviews afterward are telling.  The fact that Bloomberg won both sides as a "write-in" candidate shows at least some dissatisfaction with the major candidates on the Democratic side and President Trump.  We know it's a very small statistical sample, but the fact that Bloomberg is on the minds of the voters in this small hamlet in extreme Northern New Hampshire shows that the millions of dollars that Bloomberg is pouring into advertising is having an effect.

Stay tuned.  We're off to see Andrew Yang.

On the ground in New Hampshire

Hopefully, the rain won't hurt the rhubarb or Mayor Pete Buttigieg's impending New Hampshire primary victory.  Buzz and I decided to do what any good reporting duo would do when inclement weather hits, we hit Castro's Backroom in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire for a cigar.  (We're not Jim Cantore and this ain't the Weather Channel.)  And by the way, for our conservative readers, despite the Castro name, we didn't find Bernie Sanders here.

Mayor Pete's momentum has seemed to slow in the daily tracking polls, but Buzz's calculations on the Univac 3000 still predict a Mayor Pete victory. Although the more intriguing stories are the rise of Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and the fall of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden.  Klobuchar is looking to finish a strong third, while Biden and Warren are looking at fourth and fifth place.  Biden is looking to salvage his campaign with a respectable showing in the Nevada caucuses (February 22nd)  and a win in the South Carolina primary (February 29th,) but New Hampshire may be the end of the road for Warren.

For a brief shining moment a few months back, Warren was looking good, but she seems to be a victim of 21st Century politics.  She is one of the best candidates on "paper," but, for better or worse, we are living in a sound bite era.  All the position papers and well-formulated policies aren't hitting home with the current voters who are more influenced by their hearts than their minds. 

Buzz has crunched the numbers, and here's his bold prediction of the order of finish in the Granite State.  Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Gabbard, and Steyer. 

We're going to hit the streets and look for some buzz. 

On the Republican side, President Donald Trump supporters have been lining up outside the arena for Trump's rally since early this morning.  Although there are 17 candidates on the Republican ballot, Buzz has predicted that Trump will see upwards of 94 percent of the Republican vote.  Former Massachusetts governor WilliamWeld will finish a distant second.  Buzz has calculated his finish at 1.7 percent of the vote.

We're going to brave the weather and hit the streets.  God willing and the creek don't rise, we'll end our day in Dixville Notch.  The votes will be in shortly after midnight from this little hamlet near the Canadian border.  All five voters cast their ballots and the votes will be counted by 12:10 AM.

Stay tuned.

We're off to New Hampshire

Mayor Pete is the guy to beat.  Even though the results of the 2020 Iowa caucuses are still a bit muddled, there are two things we learned from Iowa that are certain --- Former Vice President Joe Biden is in trouble and Pete Buttigieg came away with the big MO.

Buzz has fueled up the VW Microbus and we're off to New Hampshire to see for ourselves.  This is the third New Hampshire Presidential Primary for Buzz and me, and it may be the most exciting yet.  We look to a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters that found 62 % would rather see a giant meteor hit the Earth and wipe out human existence than see President Donald Trump re-elected on November 3rd as proof of the enthusiasm.

Recent polls in New Hampshire have shown Mayor Pete on the rise and Biden dropping like the face of the Old Man of the Mountain.  The Boston Globe/Suffolk University daily tracking poll has seen Mayor Pete rise from eight percent to 22 percent in the past week.  The same poll showed Biden drop from 24 percent to 10.  Other polls show similar trends. 

Senator Bernie Sanders, who won the 2016 Democratic primary in New Hampshire over Hillary Clinton by 22 points seems to have a ceiling and a floor in not only New Hampshire but across the country, especially with multiple candidates in the race.  Mayor Pete has risen in the numbers apparently by grabbing former Biden supporters.  Sanders's support has remained pretty steady over the last few months in New Hampshire.

Both primaries (the Republican and Democratic) are contested, with 33 candidates on the Democratic side and 17 on the Republican side.  Most of these candidates will only get a handful of votes statewide, and most of them are and will remain political unknowns.  The requirements to get on the New Hampshire Presidential Primary ballot is to file a "declaration of candidacy" and pay a $1000 fee.  Unfortunately, our good friend Vermin Supreme will grace neither the Republican or Democratic ballot this year.  He's running in 2020 as a Libertarian.  We hope to see him in New Hampshire.

Watch for entries as our trip begins.  See you in the Granite State.

Uncle Joe is gonna run

Donald Trump's worst electoral nightmare is coming to a state near you. Buzz has been crunching data with the Univac 3000, and the results are in:  Joe Biden will run for President in 2020.  Biden needs to win the Democratic nomination first, but the blue-collar, "ordinary Joe" is just the type of candidate who has the best chance of putting Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin back in the Democratic column and sending Trump back to New York City and his "friends" at the Southern District of New York's prosecutors' office.

2016 Election was not a landslide but any stretch of the imagination

The 2016 election of Donald Trump was the perfect storm that cracked the vaunted Democratic Blue Electoral wall.  Let's look at the numbers first.

Trump did not win the popular vote, in fact, he lost it by almost three million votes, 62,980,160 to 65,845,063.  With regards to the electoral vote, he narrowly won that --- 304 to 227.  (There was an unusually large number of faithless electors --- those who vote for a candidate other than the one who won their respective states.  Colin Powell got three, and John Kasich, Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders, and Faith Spotted Owl each received one vote.)  For those of you scoring at home, you need 270 to win.  Without the faithless electors, Trump still wins 306 to 238.

The election came down to Trump's narrow victories in three of the blue wall states --- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Those 46 electoral votes went to Trump, but without them, he loses 278 to 260.  The popular vote victories in those states were Pennsylvania (44,292), Wisconsin (22,748, and Michigan (10,704), for a total of 77,744.  The victories in these three states were powered by first-time or first-time in a long time voters who overwhelmingly voted either for Trump or against Hillary Clinton.

Changing demographics put Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), and Texas (36) into play for the Democrats in 2020, so Trump will no only have to hold the three rust belt states he won in 2016 but will have to play defense in these three soon-to-be Purple states.

Why Joe's gonna run

Joe Biden would be President now if he ran against Trump in 2016.  He did not enter the race, primarily because of the tragic death of his son 46-year-old son Beau in 2015 from brain cancer.  It's a decision that we believe he regrets greatly. 

Biden ran for President twice before (1988 and 2008), but both times did poorly.  The difference this time started when he got the call from candidate Barack Obama in 2008 to be Obama's running mate.  This changed everything.  He was instantly transformed from an also-ran to a somebody.  His tenure as the "stand-by-your-man" Vice President only enhanced his stature.  He has been involved in politics for over 50 years, having been elected to the Senate from Delaware at just prior to his 30th birthday in 1972.  The political bug is in his blood and it will never leave him until the day he dies.

Being the political animal he is, Biden certainly sees the poll numbers.  Biden either leads or is at the top of every Democratic Presidential preference poll and leads Trump in every electoral state that is going to make the difference in 2020.  Yes, a lot of this has to do with name recognition, but Biden is not only well known, but he is very well liked, despite his propensity to make a major gaffe now and then.  Actually, his gaffe-making adds to his genuineness.

Biden also polls very well with the blue-collar workers (the Reagan Democrats) who got up off their couches and cast a vote for Trump in the crucial states.  Hillary never made a connection with these voters in 2016.  They were never enthused enough and Trump seemed like someone who felt their plight.  Biden has the same effect on these voters, albeit not as strong as Trump did in 2016, but enough to make the difference in 2020.

For these major factors, Biden will run, and why not --- he loves the political arena, and for the first time in his political career (2016 doesn't count,) he actually has a pretty clear path to the White House.  As far as the age issue, Trump will be 74 on election day 2020 and Biden turns 78 17 days after election day 2020.  Biden is in good health, and besides, they say that 70 is the new 50, so Biden is only 56 years old right now.

So Biden's options are to sit on the sidelines and rue the 2016 decision not to run or follow the political animal blood in his veins and jump back into the political arena with much more than a Don Quixote chance at becoming President.  The Univac 3000 says he's in and so do Buzz and I.

The New Normal

Impeach first, ask questions later.  If Barack Obama were still the President, the Republicans would be trying to ride him outta town on a rail if he tried to get away with a scintilla of the crap Donald Trump did.  A major part of the problem is a substantial sector of the American populace doesn't believe Trump did anything wrong.

When we look to the veracity of the two men the difference is stark.  According to the New York Times, Trump told six times as many lies in the first ten months of his administration as Obama did in his complete eight years at the helm.  Yes, we are not that naive to think that politicians don't stretch the truth, but as a good friend of mine says, "don't piss on me and tell me it's raining," and that's exactly what Trump is doing to the American people.

Truth is an absolute

The latest tally from the Washington Post has President Donald Trump at 9014 false or misleading claims over the first 773 days of his administration.  In Saturday's speech at the Conservative Political Action Committee annual gathering in Washington, D.C. he told 200 misleading or false claims in a two-hour speech.  Despite this, thirty-five to forty percent of the population is unmoved.  The objective truth that Trump is lying is chalked up to "fake news."

The late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan was fond of saying, "everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts."  Apparently, in Trump's America, Trump and his supporters are entitled to their own set of facts.  It is much easier to make an argument when you start with the argument and then move to the facts than to use objective facts and tailor your argument to those facts. By contrast, it is impossible to have a constructive argument or discussion if you can't agree on the facts.

Let's turn to baseball for a quick analogy.  Here are a couple of quick, objective, and easily verifiable facts.  Outfielder Barry Bonds hit 762 home runs over the span of his 22-year baseball career and Shortstop Ozzie Smith hit 28 home runs over the span of his 19-year career.  Once we agree on the number of home runs each player hit and the positions they played, it would be foolish to argue that Smith was a better home run hitter or that Bonds was a better shortstop, however, if you believe that Smith hit 800 home runs and Bonds won 18 gold gloves at shortstop, we could argue all day long on the aforementioned propositions.

When did we lose our way

Since the solidification of the two-party system in the United States (probably the election of 1860,) the two major parties have had their disagreements on a wide array of issues.  Their positions have changed on some issues and their basis of support has changed over the years, but since the founding of the Republic, we have been a nation which knows how to compromise when it comes to getting things done.  Our Constitution is rooted in some major compromises, such as the creation of two houses of Congress, the apportionment of House seats, the separation of powers which all came about through negotiation and compromise.

This idea of compromise helped us make our way through the past 200 plus years.  We have addressed issues and come to solutions by taking two divergent points of view and forging something which wasn't always the solution that either side originally envisioned.  This was possible because parties generally agreed on the facts or at least the major facts.  Today, it seems like the problem is not coming to a compromise agreement, it is agreeing on the facts to start working to that solution.

Republicans and Democrats have almost always disagreed on how to solve a particular problem, but in most cases, they were able to distinguish fact from fiction.  They also realized that most people involved in the political process were in it because they love this country and truly want to do what they see is best for their constituents.  A lot of this changed in 1994 when Newt Gingrich grabbed hold of the soul of the Republican party, and this change was exacerbated in 2010 when the Tea Party movement began.  The final descent into the rabbit hole was the election of Donald Trump in 2016.

We need to get back on track

The only way that we will forge ahead in this great nation of ours is if we start agreeing on the facts.  We need to realize that even our political enemies may have a point now and then, and believe it or not, those same people love America just as much as you do.  Buzz and I were not big fans of George W. Bush, but we never doubted his patriotism.  And, Bush's biggest mistake was not made because he made up facts and flat out lied to us, but because he believed faulty intelligence.  20/20 hindsight is a great thing, and we can now look back at the Iraq war disaster and realize it was based on bad intelligence.

In Trump's America, the truth is not objective.  It's whatever Trump says it is.  Did Russia try to influence the 2016 Presidential election?  Nope.  The intelligence agencies say yes, but Trump says no because Vladimir Putin said Russia didn't.  Was Kim Jong Un responsible and aware of the torture of Otto Warmbier?  Experts say yes, but Trump says no because Kim Jong Un says he didn't.

We cannot continue like this. We need to accept that certain things are verifiable truths.  This is serious stuff that affects the American people.  This is not Trump padding his wealth to jump up a few spots on Forbes' list of the wealthiest people or continually using superlative adjectives that categorizes everything he does as "the biggest, the largest, the best, or the most."  We expect politicians to paint things in the most positive light, but we don't expect or deserve them to continually lie about things that any rational person sees as outright false.

Bright Shiny Objects

Courtesy of Catster.com

Buzz has a cat named Mnuchin, pronounced Munchkin, like the little characters from the Wizard of Oz, but spelled like Donald Trump's new Secretary of Treasury nominee, Steve Mnuchin.  

When Buzz is not crunching numbers on the Univac 3000, he's playing with Mnuchin, either using his red laser pointer or using some other bright shiny object to get Mnuchin to run around the room chasing the distraction.

While Buzz was getting Mnuchin to climb the walls, it reminded me how Trump has played the press and the American public with "bright shiny objects."  Whenever the press cycle has moved away from him, or more importantly, has moved to scrutinize one of his many questionable statements or positions, Trump gets out his laser pointer -- an off-the-wall tweet.

Conflicts of Interest

The perfect example is when the New York Times published a lengthy article about Trump's plethora of business interests throughout the world, many of which raise troubling conflicts of interest with being President.

The Times reported, among other things, as we all know, Trump has repeatedly said he is under audit from the Internal Revenue Service.   The IRS will be under direct supervision of the Trump administration.  The Trump International Hotel has a contract with the General Services Administration, whose operation again will be under the direct supervision of the Trump Administration.  Deutsche Bank is in negotiations with the Attorney General's office over mortgage abuses, which may result in a $14 billion penalty. Trump owes millions of dollars to Deutsche Bank.  The list goes on and on.

Richard Nixon on the law

Trump initially responded to the conflicts by taking a page from the book of Richard Nixon stating basically "when the President does it, that means it is not illegal."  He has since told us that he will hold a news conference sometime in mid-December with his children, where he will address the issue, but not before he tweeted about flag burning.

Flag Burning

"Nobody should be allowed to burn the American flag -- if they do there must be consequences -- perhaps loss of citizenship or a year in jail," Trump tweeted.

Despite the fact that the issue of criminal punishment for flag burning was settled by the United States Supreme Court in 1989 (Texas v. Johnson) and in the subsequent failed attempt to pass a Constitutional amendment, the question is still a third rail issue.  The Supreme Court decision, joined by conservatives the late Justice Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy, held that flag burning was constitutionally protected free speech, and the proposed Constitutional Amendment didn't make it out of Congress.

For the next day or so, no one was talking about the conflicts of interest.  The buzz was over Trump's flag burning tweet.

In fact Buzz just received an email from the American Legion reviving the Constitutional Amendment prohibiting flag burning.  As of the time of posting, 83 percent supported an amendment in the American Legion survey.

So the bright shiny object worked again.  The conflict of interest story was pushed to the back burner.  This wasn't the first time we chased Trump's bright shiny object, and Buzz and I are afraid it won't be the last.

Make America Great Again

The philosopher William Martin Joel once said, "the good ole days weren't always good and tomorrow ain't as bad as it seems."  Now that Donald Trump has been elected the 45th President of the United States, Buzz and I have been pondering to what era in American history Trump believes we should aim to return.

Many conservatives are fond of the good old days, so let's take a look back at eras to which we can return to make America great again.

The early days of the Republic.

At the time of the adoption of the Consitution in the late 1780s and early 1790s, political and civil rights weren't that great.  Only White property owning males could vote.  So if you were a woman or you didn't own property or were not white, voting to elect your leaders on federal, state, or local levels was not an option.  

In 1798, Congress passed the Alien and Sedition Acts.  Among other things, these laws  allowed the President to imprison and deport non-citizens who were deemed dangerous or who were from a hostile nation.  It also criminalized making false statements that were critical of the federal government.

The Antebellum Era

Prior to the passage of the 13th Amendment, which outlawed slavery or involuntary servitude, 3.9 million African Americans were slaves, and thus didn't have the rights given to the rest of us.  American Indians, the "Americans" who greeted all of us when we got off the boat, weren't granted American citizenship until 1924.

The upcoming Industrial Age was dawning, so the rudimentary labor laws, like an eight hour work day, were still decades away.  The Food and Drug Administration, which started regulating the food we eat and the conditions under which it was processed didn't come into existence until 1906.

The Roaring 20s

A lot of people look back to the 1920s as the good ole days, but things weren't that good.  Women did get the right to vote with the passage of the 19th Amendment in 1920, but there was virtually no safety net, and Wall Street investors specialized in unregulated insider trading. The social safety, with Social Security, unemployment insurance, among other programs were a decade away.

If you wanted a beer or a scotch or even a glass of wine, forget it.  The temperance advocates had amended the Constitution in 1919 to prohibit the manufacturing, transportation, and sale of intoxicating beverages.  It wasn't until 1933 that the "noble experiment" ended with the passage of the 21st Amendment.

The "Happy Days" of the 1950s

Many people harken back to those idyllic times of the Cunningham family and the Eisenhower Era of the 1950s as a time when America was great.  Well, again, if you weren't a White American, forget about equal rights in the South and many American cities.

The South began adopting Jim Crow laws beginning in the 1870s.  African Americans were second class citizens.  They had their own segregated and inferior schools, they were forced ride in the back of buses, they had their own water fountains, and were excluded from even being customers at many businesses.  Violent crimes by Whites against African Americans were rarely prosecuted, and even when they were, the result was an acquittal by an all White jury.

Even in the North and the rest of the country, restrictive covenants in real estate deeds prohibited the sale of real property to African Americans, Jews, and many other minority groups.  Chicago, New York, Boston and other Northern cities still had laws and policies that discriminated against minorities.

We were also engaged in the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and since the Soviets developed the atomic bomb in 1949, the threat of nuclear war was an everyday fear.  Elementary school students practicing get under their desks in Atomic attack drills.

The Sixties

Changes in laws in the 1960s greatly expanded individuals rights, and the safety net expanded, but we lived through some horrific events.

Our older citizens finally got government healthcare in the form of Medicare, so they actually could enjoy their golden years with better health.  The Supreme Court greatly expanded individual rights in the area of rights of the accused, free speech, voting rights, and personal freedom.  Congress passed the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, along with a laundry list of social safety net programs.

We lost President John F. Kennedy, Senator Robert Kennedy, and Dr. Martin Luther King to the bullets of assassins. We were engaged in a war which would claim the lives of almost 60,000 young Americans, most of whom were brought into the Vietnam conflict via the military draft.  Corporations continued to pollute the air, the land, and the entire environment, because the Environmental Protection Agency wasn't created until a few years into the Nixon administration.

The Reagan Years

Tax rates were actually higher during the Reagan years, especially for poorer Americans, than they are today.  We were still spending billions and billions of dollars on a massive defense build up to defeat the Soviet menace, and the administration was illegally selling arms to Iran to fund the Contras in Nicaragua.

LBGT rights were still twenty years away.  Whereas the Supreme Court cleared the way for interracial marriage in the 1960s, gays and lesbians would have to wait another couple of decades to marry the one they loved, or even visit them in a hospital or make medical decisions for their partners.

Buzz and I think America is pretty great right now, and looking back to a mythical bygone era of greatness is foolhardy.  We should not look back for a greater America, but should look forward to a better, and dare we say, even greater America.

OVC Oscar picks

Buzz and I have been hard at work screening movies in the back of the ole VW Microbus, and with the help of the Univac 3000, we are ready to make some fearless predictions.

The 86th Annual Academy Awards will air live from the Thomas Dolby Theater in Los Angeles on Sunday night on ABC starting at 7pm EST.  Why a Hollywood theater would choose to name itself after a washed up British musician from the 1980s is beyond me, but Buzz is looking into it.

Best Picture

Since 2009, the Academy has been nominating up to 10 movies for best picture.  Up until that time, and since way back in the early days of the awards, they only nominated five, so that probably explains why none of the Police Academy movies were ever nominated.  They were on the cusp, so they didn't make it in the days of only five nominations.  I guess it also explains the Steve Guttenberg snubs.

This year nine pictures were nominated (again if Police Academy 8 were released last year, we're sure there would have been ten nominees.)  The nominees are "American Hustle," "Captain Phillips," "Dallas Buyers Club," "Gravity," "Her," "Nebraska," "Philomena," "12 Years a Slave," and "The Wolf of Wall Street."

"American Hustle" is loosely based on the late 1970s early 1980s ABSCAM sting operation, wherein the FBI tried to entrap a number of politicians by using a convicted con artist to hook politicians up with a phony "Arab Sheikh" in order for the Skeikh to bribe the politicians to receive political favors. Clearly the best part of this movie is Amy Adams in her revealing 1970s outfits, and her acting aint that bad either.  We also loved Jeremy Renner as Mayor Carmine Polito

"Captain Phillips" is the story of an American container ship that gets hijacked by Somali pirates off the coast of Africa.This is also based on a true story, although from what we understand although Tom Hanks' Captain Phillips is a warm, caring, sympathetic character, the real Captain Phillips was a bit of an ass.  You know how this movie is gonna end even if you don't remember it from the headlines of a few years ago.  It's all over when you hear the call for the Navy Seals.  Kick ass, pirates dead, Captain Phillips safe.  But even though you know it's coming, the climactic scene still blows you away.

"Dallas Buyers Club" is also based on a true story.  It follows the life of a rodeo star Ron Woodruf, portrayed by Matthew McConaughey after he is diagnosed with AIDS in the mid 1980s.  Woodruf is basically told that he's gonna be dead in 30 days, so he seeks treatment in Mexico and ends up surviving and controlling his illness.  He then sets up a "buyers club" where he sells smuggled drugs in from Mexico to help treat AIDS patients who have given up on the American Medical system.  He battles with the FDA and American doctors, but his smuggled drugs work better than the traditional hospital treatments at the time.

"Gravity" is a 90 minute space odyssey which is about 80 minutes too long.  Although the concept is kinda kool and the cinematography is really good, how long do you really want to watch Sandra Bullock "lost in space."

"Her" is a movie Joaquin Phoenix plays a dork who works in a place where he writes romantic "letters for hire."  This first class nerd falls in love with a sexy voiced (Scarlett Johansson) computer operating system.  Yes, that is really that plot.  Although the movie does have it's endearing moments, it's hard to get over the really stupid storyline.

"Nebraska" is the story of an old man's (Bruce Dern) quest for a million dollar sweepstakes prize.  The Montana guy has to get to Nebraska to claim the prize he thinks he won, which he didn't.  Buzz and I have agreed that the only way we would travel to Nebraska was to claim a million dollar plus prize, but we'd be damn sure it really existed before we gassed up the Micro bus.  We had considered going there to see Johnny Carson's birthplace, but then found out he was really born in Iowa.

"Philomena," contrary to popular belief is not just the name you make up to tease your little brother Phil when you were in grade school, but it actually is a movie starring Judi Dench.  It follows her quest to find her child who she gave up for adoption to the local convent.  She begins that search 50 years after she gave up the child.  This is also based on a true story.

"12 Years a Slave" is based on a biographical novel of a free African American man who lives in Saratoga, New York in the 1840s.  He gets hoodwinked into traveling to Washington, D.C., where he ends up being kidnapped and sold into slavery.  The story is compelling and dramatizes the evils of an institution which ruled in the Southern states for hundreds of years.  As the title implies, there is a happy ending.

"The Wolf of Wall Street" is Martin Scorsese's latest movie.  Its stars Leonardo DiCaprio as Jordan Belfort, an unscrupulous stock broker who lives a lavish and extravagant lifestyle in the 1990s.  Belfort, who is alive and well today, was the consummate salesman who ended up doing some time in federal prison.  He crosses the line numerous times in this story of gratuitous sex and excess.

After watching the movies and running the numbers through the Univac 3000, we came up with different results in a number of the categories, so we're gonna list who Buzz and I believe should win and who the Univac 3000 says will win.

Which movie should take home the best picture Oscar:  Buzz and I narrowed it down to "American Hustle," "Dallas Buyers Club," "12 Years a Slave," and "The Wolf of Wall Street."  "Her" and "Gravity" are entertaining, but really aren't Best Picture material.  For Buzz and me, the Oscar goes to "12 Years a Slave." The Univac 3000 agrees:   "12 Years a Slave."

Best Actor:  Leo has come a long way since being the "Oliver" on "Growing Pains." Wish we could say the same about Robbie Rist (the true Oliver.)  Leo does a hell of a job in The Wolf, just as he did in "The Aviator" and "J. Edgar."  Bruce Dern really isn't acting, because Bruce Dern really is a confused old man.  Christian should get courage credits for showing off his gut and that horrendous haircut, but tht doesn't get you enough points to win.  Chiwetel Ejlofor's name is just too hard to pronounce to get a win.  Matthew McConaughey really deserves the Oscar for this one.  He probably deserves a Oscar for the weight he lost just to play the role. Should win:  Matthew McConaughey for "Dallas Buyers Club"  Univac 3000 picks Matthew McConaughey for "Dallas Buyers Club"

Best Actress:  What can we say to Meryl, but "this aint your year."  Come on, you already won a Oscar two years ago after a 19 year drought.  We'll see you at the victory podium around 2030.  Sandra Bullock was excellent in "The Blind Side," for which she won the Best Actress Oscar in 2010, but just because she's on screen in "Gravity" 98.6 percent of the time, doesn't mean a best actress nod.  Judi Dench, we love you but if the didn't give you an award for the Bond movies, they aint gonna give you one now.  That leaves Cate and Amy. Should win:  Amy Adams for "American Hustle"  Univac 3000 picks Cate Blanchett for "Blue Jasmine"

Best Supporting Actor: We loved Jonah Hill, but this aint his year.  Bradley Cooper was very good, but nope.  We don't really remember who Michael Fassbender played.  Barkhad Adbi, Bradley Cooper, and Jared Leto all put in tremendous performances, but Leto really shined in "Dallas Buyers Club" and deserves the award, despite Adbi being an early favorite. Should win:  Jared Leto for "Dallas Buyers Club"  Univac 3000 picks Jared Leto for "Dallas Buyers Club"

Best Supporting Actress:  The early favorite was Jennifer Lawrence, in a role we didn't particularly like, but Lupita Nyong'o has picked up steam, and we agree.  Sally Hawkins, Julia Roberts, and June Squibb are also nominated. Should win:  Lupita Nyong'o for "12 Years a Slave"  Univac 3000 picks Lupita Nyong'o for "12 Years a Slave"

Best Director:  Sixty two times out of eighty five the best movie and best director have matched up.  It should happen that way again this year, but it probably won't.  We thought Steve McQueen died in 1980, but apparently this director is a different guy.  David O. Russell and Alexander Payne were nominated to fill out the category.  We believe that Alfonso Cuaron was a filler, too, because as we said before, this was a 90 minute movie that was 80 minutes too long.  About Martin Sorcese, what can we say.  He is excellent and deserves to win, but he won't.  Should win: Martin Sorcese "The Wolf of Wall Street"  Univac 3000 picks Alfonso Cuaron "Gravity"  (Get those circuits checked on the Univac, Buzz.

Don't look for us on the red carpet.  Buzz and I never go, because we really don't like all the attention.  Judi Dench offered us some tickets this year and wanted Buzz to be her escort, but Buzz said he wasn't going without me.  I'm still waiting for my invite from Amy Adams.

The truth is one of the first casualties of Obama Derangement Syndrome

Mark Twain once said "a lie will travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes."  In the world of the conservative blogosphere, now the lie makes it way all the way around the world and back again in that same period of time.

The latest example of this is the rumor that the number for information on the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is 1800FUCKYOU.  Hold on to your seats Obama haters, it aint true.

Buzz and I were having breakfast this morning while discussing the hot draft prospects in the WNBA, when we overheard a few customers talking to a waitress.  They told her that the number for Obamacare information is 1800FUCKYOU.  The waitress was a bit incredulous, but decided to give it a try. 

She called the number, and lo and behold, she got a message that said "press one for Obamacare."  It was enough to convince her, but like most of the crap fed to us by the right wing and suffers of Obama Derangement Syndrome (ODS,)  it just isn't true.

Buzz looked up from his WNBA fantasy cheat sheet and said.  "Excuse me, what did they use the phrase Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act?'

"Obamacare," was her reply.

Buzz went on to explain that the federal government does not refer to the Affordable Care Act as Obamacare.  It refers to the Act by its real name --- The Affordable Care Act.  Obamacare is the shorthand name given to it by the media, the right wing, or who really knows who first termed the phrase. 

One of the customers thought for a minute, and said, "that handsome gentleman in the tweed jacket and turtle neck is right."  Since I was wearing a Nehru jacket, I realized she was referring to Buzz and his Obamacare comment and not my overall choice for first pick in the WNBA draft.

When we got back to the VW Microbus, Buzz powered up the Univac 3000 to do a little research.

He found a snopes.com article. Those who may be unfamiliar with snopes.com should know that snopes.com is a website dedicated to debunking or proving urban legends, myths, rumors, misinformation, and folklore

Here's what they found:

Although 800-318-2596 is the correct phone number for the Health Insurance Marketplace customer service line, and turning its digits into letters as they are found on telephone keypads does produce the phrase 800-FUCKYO (among many other possibilities.)  Of course, it only works by ignoring the "1," because standard keypads have no letters on the "1."

Technically, the 800-318-2596 phone number cannot correctly be rendered as 800-FUCKYO because that designation omits the essential '1' digit between the '3' and '8' and therefore does not represent an accurate phone number for the Health Insurance Marketplace hotline (or a valid phone number at all). A correct rendering of the phone number would be the somewhat less salacious 1-800-F1UCKYO.

Additionally, the 800-318-2596 phone number wasn't selected by the current administration, as it has been used as a toll-free government number for providing information about Medicare plans since at least as far back as 1999.

The current assignee of the 1-800-FUCKYOU number (a phone sex line) has now updated their initial recording greeting with a message asking callers to indicate whether or not they are calling about Obamacare.

Sorry we had to debunk this myth for our friends who suffer from ODS and all those innocent people who were duped by another ODS pipedream.

But, alas, there is still hope for ODS suffers, according to Buzz's research on the Univac 3000, the Obamacare death panels have decreed that ODS is a covered affliction under Obamacare, even if it is a pre-existing condition before you sign up for insurance.  There is one catch, however, treatment is long term "in-patient" at the FEMA internment camps.
 

Perhaps Cruz should listen to Sam-I-Am

Would you like Obamacare in a box?
Would you like Obamacare with a fox?

Not in a box.
Not with a fox.
Not in a house.
Not with a mouse.
I would not like it here or there.
I would not like anywhere.
I would not like Obamacare.
I do not like it, Sam-I-amacare.

For a well educated guy like United States Senator Ted Cruz, you would think he woulda realized that "Green Eggs and Ham" has a happy resolution for the obstinate character who protests a bit too much.

The Texas junior Senator spent 20 plus hours on the Senate floor this week telling the American people about the evils of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and ironically talked about the Dr. Seuss classic "Green Eggs and Ham."  Perhaps Cruz didn't see the irony, because like the character who goes on and on about his dislike for Green Eggs and Ham without trying it, Cruz did the same about a program that hasn't even gone into effect. 

Buzz and I strongly believe that the majority of Americans who have been fed constant attacks on Obamacare over the past 4 years will, like Green Eggs and Ham, come to love the program once it is fully implemented.

The Republican and Tea Party war on Obamacare has often crossed the line between reasoned debate and delusiondom many times.  The United States House of Representatives has voted 41, maybe 42 times to repeal all are part of Obamacare over the last two and a half years.  They continue to do this despite the fact that The United States Senate has no even entertained a vote on one of their 41 or 42 pieces of legislation, and even if the Seante acts, President Barack Obama would never sign a bill that guts his siganture achievement.

We heard about "death panels," sky rocketing premiums, job losses, loss of quality of care, doctors who will retire or high tail it out of the country, socialism, socialized medicine, loss of every freedom guaranteed under the constitution, comparisons to Hitler and Nazi Germany, comparisons to Marx, Lenin, Castro, Mao, and a whole bunch of right or left wing dictators, and of course our favorite "I don't want the government getting in between me and my doctor."

We agree with Steven Colbert who said "We don't want government getting in between us and our doctors, that's the insurance company's job."

We heard the same worn out arguments 48 years ago when Ronald Reagan preached against the evils of "socialized medicine" which would ensue when Congress passsed Medicare.  Medicare has become one of the most popular and efficiently run government programs ever.  And, guess what, it was the right thing to do. 

The system we have now downright sucks, and Ted Cruz and all of the Republicans have not come forward with any solutions to get healthcare for the 40 plus million who don't have it or to control the skyrocketing costs of healthcare. 

Yes we have some of the best healthcare in the world, but that is only if you can afford it.  For those millions of Americans who don't have healthcare insurance, their "primary care doctor" is the emergency room, and many times they delay going to the emergency room until a simple condition which could have easily been resolved by a primary care doctor, becomes necessitous of expensive medical care.

Obamacare is certainly not perfect, but to the Tea Partiers and Ted Cruz, how can you rant up and down about a program you haven't even "tried."  Next time, Senator Cruz, read the rest of the book before you go on quoting it.  Sometimes the endings will surprise you.

Pope Francis may make being Catholic kool again

Buzz and I may actually go back to church this week, and Pope Francis is the reason.

For years and years, in fact as long as we can remember the Catholic church has bitched about abortion, contraceptives, and homosexuals. Buzz and I sorta agree with the late, great, former Nixon Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz.  When asked about Pope Paul VI's position (no pun intended) on various sexual matters such as birth control and pre-marital sex, Butz responded in a mock Italian accent, "He no playa the game, he no maka the rules."

Now, our new Pope, Francis says the church should back off on beating up the flock over abortion, contraceptives, and gay marriage.  It's no longer kool in the Pope Francis' eyes to damn people to hell if they vote for an elected official who supports a woman's right to choose or believes in marriage equality for gays and lesbians. Whether it will work its way down to your local parish remains to be seen.

Francis said, "The church sometimes has locked itself up in small things, in small-minded rules, The most important thing is the first proclamation: Jesus Christ has saved you. And the ministers of the church must be ministers of mercy above all."

One of the problems with Francis' change in direction is the fact that almost all the Cardinals and Bishops in the Catholic Church throughout the world is the fact that they were appointed to their positions by either John Paul II or Benedict XVI.  Both of these guys believed in a non-bending and very conservative Catholic church.  Their position was "love it or leave it."  If you don't tow the line, don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out of Saint Paul's Cathedral.

We really hope and pray that the 76 year old pontiff lives 'til 100 and is healthy in mind and body.  That way, Francis will be able to appoint like minded individuals as the new bishops and new cardinals.  These men, and hopefully in a short time, women, will be able to enthusiastically institute the changes in attitude and policy set forth by Francis.

Francis has emphasized that the church should focus on helping those who are less fortune --- the poor, the uneducated, the disabled, etc. in a sense, believing the only reason to look down on anyone is to offer them a helping hand to get up.  This is the type of church of which Buzz and I would be proud to be members.

Gotta get to mass.... more in the future.

College GOP focus group finds GOP "closed-minded, racist, rigid, old-fashioned."

In the ongoing saga of GOP election post mortems, the College Republicans (CRs) found that people think of the Grand Old Party as "closed-minded, racist, rigid, and old-fashioned."  Well, Buzz and I didn't need a focus group to come to the same conclusion.

See the full report.

To many people, particularly voters under 30, The Simpsons character  Montgomery Burns has come to symbolize the GOP.  It has become a party that will protect the interests of the privileged until its dying breath, which might be that long off in Presidential elections if they continue on the same path.  The CRs said the GOP is perceived as the party that will pat you on the back when you succeed, but won't help you get there.

And just as Mr. Burns lacks empathy and the self awareness to see how anyone could view the world differently, so does the modern Republican Party.  Karl Rove's meltdown on election night when the FOX News number crunchers called Ohio for President Barack Obama is a perfect example of the bubble in which much of the GOP lives.

Obama Derangement Syndrome

Many in the GOP suffer from Obama Derangement Syndrome (ODS).  ODS is the affliction which causes one to believe that everyone hates Obama and everything Obama does is evil.  This is the affliction that caused many GOPers to convince themselves, that despite all the independent polling which showed Obama ahead in almost every battleground state, that Romney would, as GOP guru Dick Morris predicted, gather more than 300 electoral votes and cruise to victory in 2012.  Well, for those who still didn't get the news, Obama won quite convincingly.  And, believe it or not, the polls were right.

It is not surprising that many in the GOP believed Romney would win, and win big.  After all, many in the GOP are enveloped in a world which feeds into their ODS.  There are two main ways the GOPers remain in this bubble.  They only associate with people who hold Obama in disdain, thereby reinforcing the belief that "everybody hates Obama,"  and they get their information solely from the propaganda wings of the GOP (talk radio and FOX News.)

GOP positions on social issues out of touch with younger voters

The GOP has also taken positions on particular social issues which turn young voters off.  The GOP is totally opposed to same sex marriage, whereas most recent polling shows over 70 percent of voters under 30 support gay marriage.   The GOP is also radically pro-life, calling for a constitutional amendment to ban all abortions, whereas only about 20 to 25 percent of voters under 30 agree with that position.

Another issue which the GOP totally missed the boat with young voters is Obamacare.  One of the first facets of Obamacare to be implemented was the ability of parents to keep their children on their health insurance policies until they are 26 years old.  The Republicans, instead of embracing this popular part of the program have voted 37 times in the House to repeal Obamacare.

The conclusion of the report is to slightly tweak the GOP positions to take the harshness away from them.  For example  to "focus on the economic issues that affect young people today: education, the cost of health care, unemployment," but does not say to embrace Obamacare.  The report says, "Don’t concede 'caring' and 'open-minded' to the left," but does not call for the outright backing of gay marriage.

The report also stresses the importance of contacting young voters where they are, to go seek them out to get the GOP message across.  This could work rather well if the GOP were "selling" something young people wanted to buy.  The problem is they are not.  It's not the message medium, it's the message.

Buzz's Dream

One issue near and dear to Buzz's heart is the legalization of marijuana, but the College GOP don't even mention it.  This is an issue which the GOP could really make some headway, no pun intended.  Grab onto the legalization issue and make it a freedom and fiscal issue. 

They can make it an individual liberty issue, without sacrificing any principles, the "get the government out of our lives" mantra.  It also becomes a fiscal issue, because instead of spending money on cops, courts, prisons, and more guards, money can be raised by taxing it.  (On the taxing side, this is where Buzz would join Grover Norquist.)

To quote Bob Dylan, "the times they are a changin'," and if the GOP doesn't change, it will become increasingly more irrelevant.

Wayne La Pierre would never pass a background check

Buzz and I have come to the conclusion that the reason Executive Vice President of the NRA Wayne La Pierre is so opposed to background checks is that he'd never pass the mental health aspect of the check.  He did support background checks in 1999, but that was during has sane years.  Today, he is just plain nuts.
    Since I'm not much of a hunter, sportsman, or gun enthusiast, and my idea of self defense falls into the Monty Python's Holy Grail retreat, "run away!" I had to consult Buzz on this one.  Buzz is a lifetime NRA member and quite the small game hunter.  Like Mitt Romney, he hunts varmints.  He has quite the collection of stuffed squirrels, racoons, rabbits, and prairie dogs adorning his living room walls.

Newtown should have changed everything

    After the tragic deaths of 20 children and 6 adults in Newtown, Connecticut, public outrage seemed to finally be on the side of gun control.  Three areas seemed ripe for reform:  background checks for all gun sales (criminal record and mental health,) limits on magazine clips (probably 10 or so per clip,) and a renewal of the expired assault weapons ban.
    The mental illness poster child Wayne La Pierre is opposed to all of these. They all infringe on the outrageous profits of gun manufacturers which La Pierre is trying to protect..... Oh sorry, I meant they infringe on the precious Second Amendment right to bear arms which La Pierre is trying to protect.
   
Second Amendment

    For the sake of argument, let's assume that the US Supremes were right when they decided in a 5 to 4 vote that the Second Amendment includes an individual right to bear arms (despite the clear meaning of the clause protects a state "militia's" right to bear arms.) With this said, no right is absolute.  If it were, we wouldn't have libel and slander laws or laws preventing speech which calls for imminent violence or the violent overthrow of the United States government.  (Remember, the First Amendment says, in part, "Congress shall make no law" prohibiting freedom of speech.)
La Pierre's argument that the reasonable laws being proposed are an infringement on Second Amendment rights are the stuff that should cause all reasonable gun owners to take pause and question La Pierre's sanity.

The public wants new gun laws

    94 percent of Americans polled by CNN in January favor background checks, including over 70 percent of NRA members. 61 percent favor bans on semi-automatic weapons, yet La Pierre says "nyet."
    President Barack Obama continues to press for background checks, magazine limits, and an assault weapons' ban, but it is highly unlikely that the magazine limits or assault weapons ban will pass through Congress.  Background checks do have a chance.
    La Pierre's opposition to background checks is pure bullshit.  If the NRA supports the rights of law abiding citizens to own guns, how does a background check get in the way.  No one in their right mind wants violent criminals to possess a firearm of any kind.  The same goes with those who are mentally ill.  People like the Colorado theater killer, the Gabby Giffords gunman, and the Newtown shooter should never have been within a mile of a loaded weapon.
    With regards to the magazine limits, Buzz and I were listening to satellite radio today, and they read a message from a 57 year old lifelong hunter.  In Newtown, the killer shot about 150 rounds in about 6 minutes, this 57 year old avid hunter said, "I haven't shot 150 rounds in my lifetime."  Sorta brings home the point on magazine limits.  For what lawful purpose would anyone need a 30 round magazine.  Heck, when I went through basic training, my M-16 had only a twenty round clip, and our job was to actually kill people in battle.
   The final piece is the assault weapons ban.  We had an assault weapons' ban in the US for about ten years.  Originally passed in the mid 1990s by Congress and signed into law by President Bill Clinton, the ban was allowed to lapse under the Republican Congress and President George W. Bush in 2004.  (Yes, Bush's screw ups weren't only the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, unnecessary tax cuts for the rich, running the economy into a ditch....)
    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid didn't even include the assault weapons' ban in his gun control bill, for fear that it could kill the background checks.  He did say it could be offered as an amendment to the bill.  Really?  Apparently too many Senators have been hanging out with La Pierre.

Time to wake up Congress

    It's time to wake up.  Congress needs to know that a good majority of the American people want new gun laws. 

   Republicans have been arguing against the new laws, in part, because they say we should enforce the laws already on the books.  Buzz and I agree, but there's no reason why we can't do both --- pass new laws and enforce the ones already out there.
    As for Wayne La Pierre, let's get him a mental health exam.

Will the Roberts Court end up on the right side of history?

In 1857, Chief Justice Roger Taney wrote for a 7-2 majority in the case of Dred Scott v. Sanford.  The Taney court basically held that persons of African descent were not citizens of the United States under the Constitution. 
     Taney and his court will forever be remembered for that one case and for coming down on the wrong side of history.
     This week the John Roberts United States Supreme Court heard two cases involving same sex marriage.  Will the Roberts court come down on the right side of history, or will the Roberts court end up on the trash heap of history next to Roger Taney?
     Public opinion has come a long way since Congress passed the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in the mid 1990s.  It has also come a long way since Karl Rove, et. al. decided to use gay marriage as a wedge issue in the 2004 Presidential campaign.

Public Opinion has changed dramatically 

     In 1996, only 27 percent believed that gay marriage should be legal.  In 2004, about 33 percent believed gay marriage should be legal. A Washington Post poll conducted earlier this month showed that support for gay marriage had risen to 58 percent, with most recent polling showing support for gay marriage above 50 percent.
     What is even more compelling is the fact that the generational divide on this issue is enormous.  Where the Washington Post poll showed that only 44 percent of respondents over 65 supported gay marriage, the number swelled to 70 percent in the 18 to 39 demographic and 81 percent in the 18 to 29 demographic.
     The two major reasons for this change are that younger people tend to know a gay or lesbian friend or family member, and thus they are more accepting.  This can be attributed to the fact that most gay and lesbian people don't hide the fact that they are gay or lesbian anymore.  To put it simple, they are no longer "in the closet."
     The other reason is that as states pass same sex marriage laws, people have come to realize that the gay couple who got married down the street are going to destroy traditional marriage between a man and woman like we were all lead to believe by the opponents of gay marriage.
Buzz and I never understood this argument, and as people really began to think about the issue of same sex marriage, they came to the same conclusion.  The fact that two lesbians get married doesn't effect anyone's "traditional marriage" in the least bit.

Two same sex marriage cases were heard this week

     The Roberts Court heard arguments on whether California's Proposition 8 (outlawing gay marriage) should be upheld.  It's really a moot point, because if Proposition 8 were revisited by California voters in 2013, it would be soundly defeated.  This fact only may persuade the court to punt this case on some procedural ground.
     DOMA may face a similar fate.  Questions have been raised as to whether the Court has jurisdiction to hear the matter.  The Supreme Court throughout the years has been happy to boot a case and not come to a decision on the merits, especially if the justices are divided.  They can at least come to an agreement not to make a decision.
     Veteran court watchers believe that five justices (including the "swing justice" Anthony Kennedy) have serious doubts about DOMA.  The only question that remains is whether those five justices will pen a broad decision holding that marriage is a fundamental right available to all citizens, whether gay or straight, or will the court toss out DOMA on some less dramatic grounds.
     The Court could also decide the Proposition 8 case on broad or narrow grounds.

Will the decisions to strike be 5 to 4 or 6 to 3?

     What Buzz and I find particularly intriguing is where will the Chief Justice land.  As we saw in the case upholding Obamacare, the CJ was quite cognizant of his role in history when he jumped sides and penned the majority opinion. Will Roberts do the same thing with regard to gay marriage.
     If Kennedy leads a five justice majority in either of these cases, he will by virtue of his seniority decide who writes the majority opinion.  He can take it himself or assign it to another justice.  We believe he will keep both of these if he is the fifth vote. This all changes if Roberts comes down on the side of same sex marriage.
     If Roberts is in the majority, he by virtue of being the CJ will decide who writes the majority opinion.  Buzz and I would not be surprised if he does.  Roberts does not want to spend eternity next to his former fellow Chief Justice Roger "African=Americans are property" Taney.

Obama will be re-elected, so says the Univac 3000

After a 60 hour power loss caused by the second 100 year storm in the past two years, Buzz has the Univac 3000 up and running and we're ready to post the OVC Presidential election prediction.  It's Obama in a relatively close popular vote but a rather comfortable electoral win.

It looked a bit scary for Democrats after Barack Obama mailed in the first debate, but although Mitt Romney surged, he never quite overtook Obama.  Romney's "Mittmentum" has disappeared, and Super Storm Sandy pushed a good portion of the undecideds to Obama.  The Univac 3000 calculates that the Sandy factor may account for up to a percentage point gain, which in this election is a heckuva lot, for Obama.

There have been no great swings in this election cycle, and neither candidate has broken that 50 percent mark in national polls, but then again, neither candidate has fall below 45 percent either. Face it, we live in a polarized nation where up to 90 percent of the electorate falls into the unpersuadable category.  This has wreaked havoc on the aging circuits of the Univac 3000.

This may come as a shock to our Republican friends, but not everybody thinks Obama is a Communist or the anti-Christ or hates this country, maybe just 45 percent do.  It may also come as a shock to our Democratic friends that not everybody realizes that Romney is a snake oil salesman, hell bent on his latest business conquest - the Presidency.  Again, only 45 percent understand this.

With that said, let's move on to the predictions.

Safe Romney (191)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).

Safe Obama (241)

California (55), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3),
Washington (12).

The leaning Obama states put him at 271

This leaves 110 electoral votes up for grabs, but as we all can see Obama is much closer to the 270 prize.  Some of the remaining states are very, very close, but a few others are relatively certain.

North Carolina (15) will fall into the Romney column, bringing him to 206.  Likewise, Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), and Ohio (18) have been consistently polling in favor of Obama, and there is no reason to think they will jump into the Romney column at the last minute.  This puts Obama at 271, which is more than enough, but we still have a few more states to discuss.

First, a few notes on the four we just pushed into their respective columns.

Hispanic Vote and the New South

This is the last election where Nevada will even arguably be a toss up state.  Until the GOP stops the vitriolic anti-immigrant rhetoric, they will continue to get swamped in the Hispanic vote. George W. Bush got 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004.  Romney (the self-deportation candidate) will be lucky to break 28 percent.

The Hispanic vote is the fastest growing minority vote in the nation, and the GOP is on the wrong side of this.  Not only will this knock out Nevada, but watch for Arizona to be in play in four years, and Texas to be competitive in eight. (Remember, the anti-immigrant Proposition 187 which passed in California in 1994, solidified the Hispanic vote in California and destroyed any chance the GOP had of capturing this electoral rich state.)

North Carolina is a state which is fighting to shed its Old South image.  The state which regularly elected Jesse Helms to the Senate is now competitive and will only become more competitive for Democrats as the population grows with an influx of Northern moderates and liberals.  Unfortunately for Obama, old habits die hard, and there is still a lot of the Old South in this state.

New Hampshire and Iowa

It is a bit ironic that the two states which start this whole insane process with the first caucus and first primary are still in the too close to call column.  You would think that they would have made up their mind much sooner, because the 2016 campaign begins November 7, 2012.

Iowa (6) has been consistently polling in Obama's favor, so we see no reason why it would unexpectedly shift to Romney. New Hampshire (4), location of one of the many Romney homes, has been all over the map, but recently has been polling in Obama's favor.  The Univac 3000 gives it to Obama.

Colorado and Virginia

Colorado (9) and Virginia (13) has been true toss up states.  They were solidly GOP until Obama snatched them in 2008, and the Univac 3000 puts them in the Obama column again.

Colorado is another state which has a quickly growing Hispanic population, and as we've mentioned before, this does not bode well for the GOP.  Romney pulled ahead in polling in this state after the first debate, but the growing Hispanic population will self-deport Colorado's 9 electoral votes out of the Romney column and right into Obama's lap.

Virginia is a battle of three states.  Northern Virginia (the DC suburbs) and a few other urban areas are solidly Obama, the Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads area is split, and the rest of the state is solidly Romney.

The Obama campaign is pushing for a big margin in its strongholds, as is Romney in his strongholds, so it comes down to the military friendly Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Road area.  Romney has pandered to this area to such a great degree that it has paled in comparison to his regular pandering.  We are surprised that Romney doesn't arrive in the Newport News shipyard in a battleship.

With all of this said, the Univac 3000 predicts Obama's margins in Northern Virginia will be too much for Admiral Romney to overcome.

Florida, Florida, Florida

It may be Florida, Florida, Florida, but it won't be decisive, decisive, decisive this year.  Florida is the battleground state, which despite its 29 electoral votes just doesn't matter anymore.  The Democrats and Obama have expanded the map so much that Florida will not play the pivotal role it played in 2000 when the Supreme Court awarded it to Bush and made him the 43rd President.

On a fair playing field, the Univac 3000 would award Florida to Obama, however, GOP Governor Rick Scott and the GOP apparatus in the legislature and State agencies have tilted the field in Romney's favor.  Voter purges, restrictive voter registration laws which pushed even the League of Women Voters out of the voter registration business in the state (overturned by the Courts, but too late,) and cutbacks on early voting have severely hurt Obama's chances in the Sunshine State.

The Univac 3000 gives Florida to Romney, not because he won the battle of ideas in the Sunshine State, but because the GOP was able to keep enough Democratic leaning voters away from the polls.

Obama 303, Romney 235

Our prediction is 303 for Obama and 235 for Romney.  The Univac 3000 puts the popular vote total at 50.5 percent for Obama and 48 percent for Romney.  1.5 percent will cast their ballots for a third party candidate.

Romney gets trapped inside the right wing bubble

Mitt Romney thought he "had him" last night in the second Presidential debate, but he ended up being smacked down by a woman named Candy (one of Buzz's fantasies, but that's another story.)  We're talking about the question of whether or not Obama referred to the killing of Ambassador Chris Stevens as an act of "terror" the day after the attack in Barack Obama's Rose Garden press statement.

Romney said that Obama failed to mention that the attack on the Libyan consulate in Benghazi was an act of terrorism the day after the attack.  After Obama said he said it was an act of terrorism in his Rose Garden speech on September 12th, Romney thought he caught the President in a lie.  Debate moderator Candy Crowley instantly fact checked Romney and told him that the President had indeed referred to the September 11th attack as an act of terror.

Romney is new to the right wing bubble, after all, he was "Moderate Mitt" when he ran against Senator Ted Kennedy in 1994 and when he ran for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002.  He failed to recognize one of the most important rules of the right wing bubble:  don't make statements outside the bubble if there's somebody there to fact check you.

Some of the reasons right wing talk radio is so successful is because the radio host controls his or her callers, can drone on for hours unchallenged, and most importantly, controls the microphone.  Rush Limbaugh doesn't have a Candy Crowley instantly fact checking him.

The right wing has been relentless in its attacks on the Obama administration for the Libyan attack on September 11, 2012.  Republican Congressman Darryl Issa (Chair of the House Government Oversight Committee) has even taken to conducting hearings while the rest of Congress is home campaigning for their jobs.  The conclusion they reached before the hearings started was that Obama lied to the American people and engaged in some sort of cover up to hide his foreign policy failures.

Our advice to Governor Romney is to read our primer on right wing talk radio.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court has to grow a few

 Judge Haller says it's judicial restraint, a Court giving great deference to the state legislature, but to Buzz and me, it's a lack of chutzpah. C'mon call a spade a spade, or as we said in our last column, call a duck a duck.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court punted the Pennsylvania Voter ID law back to the Commonwealth Court. Justices Debra Todd and Seamus McCaffrey at least had the brass to call it like it is.  They would have thrown out the law for what it is --- a partisan political ploy to disenfranchise Democratic leaning voters.

McCaffrey was animated at the oral argument and was eloquent in his support of the right to vote by all citizens, regardless of the size of their wallet.

"I was elected by the people of our Commonwealth, by Republicans, Democrats, Independents and others, as was every single Justice on this esteemed Court," McCaffrey wrote.   "I cannot now be a party to the potential disenfranchisement of even one otherwise qualified elector, including potentially many elderly and possibly disabled veterans who fought for the rights of every American to exercise their fundamental American right to vote."

"While I have no argument with the requirement that all Pennsylvania voters, at some reasonable point in the future, will have to present photo identification before they may cast their ballots, it is clear to me the reason for the urgency of implementing Act 18 prior to the November 2012 election is purely political.  That has been made abundantly clear by the House Majority Leader.  I cannot in good conscience participate in a decision that so clearly has the effect of allowing politics to trump the solemn oath that I swore to uphold our Constitution.  That Constitution has made the right to vote a right verging on the sacred, and that right should never be trampled by partisan politics," McCaffrey concluded.

This law, like many of others passed by GOP controlled legislatures across the country, is a blatant attempt to stop Democratic leaning voters from voting.  IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PROTECTING THE INTEGRITY OF ELECTIONS.  The Commonwealth admitted this when it stipulated that in person voter fraud doesn't exist, and they didn't see it occurring in the future.

Elections should be decided by a vigorous discussion of the ideas and getting as many voters as possible to the polls.  It should not be decided by keeping voters who disagree with you away from the polls.

We should make voting as easy as possible.  Instead of passing laws that restrict voting, the legislature should be passing laws that expand voting --- like early voting, same day registration, and other laws that increase voter participation.

Throughout our nation's history we have expanded the franchise to African-American citizens, to women, to 18 year olds.  Since when did it become the vogue to start restricting the franchise?  Perhaps when political consultants realized that certain groups can be kept away.

The right to vote is sacred.  It is our way to change the direction of the country, to change the laws, to make things better.  Let's stop playing games with the precious right for which so many of our forefathers gave their lives.