Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Five Weeks to Go -- Electoral Update

Here’s the five week out update of the electoral map. There have been a number of changes since last week. A number of states have been trending towards Obama. There are three factors which fuel this trend. First, the Palin bubble seems to have burst. Second, the financial crisis has benefitted Obama, and third, Obama did well enough in the first debate to push some undecideds into his camp.

Safe Obama States: (222)

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10).

Leaning Obama (89)

Colorado (9), Michigan (17), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Virginia (13).

Safe McCain States (158)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3).

Leaning McCain (5)

West Virginia (5).

Toss Up (64)

Florida (27), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15),

Solid Obama and Leaning Obama (311)

Solid and Leaning McCain (163)

With the election five weeks away look very good for Obama at this point. Even without winning Florida or a single toss up state, Obama has more than the 270 needed. Particularly troubling to the McCain camp is Obama seems to be solidifying his support in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Bush won Virginia in 2000 and 2004. If McCain cannot win Virginia, it is almost inconceivable that McCain can win a majority with the remaining states. Even more troubling is that Ohio has been trending to Obama. If McCain loses Virginia and Ohio, he will lose the election, regardless of what happens in Florida.

Let’s see what happens in the Vice Presidential debate this Thursday. Unless Palin shocks us all with her knowledge of the issues, her charm will not carry the night. The Thursday debate is not about Biden. It is all about Palin, and if her Couric interview is any indication of how she does on Thursday night, barring a Obama implosion, McCain will return to the Senate and Obama will move on to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

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