Thursday, May 24, 2012

MBC/Marist polls show Obama leads in 3 key swing states

Three new polls from NBC News/Marist show Obama with leads in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. The polls show Obama leading by 6 points in Ohio and 4 points in both Virginia and Florida.

This is not good news for Romney who needs to win at least two out of three of these states to get to 270 electoral votes.  All three of these states were won by former President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, but switched to the Democrat Barack Obama in 2008.

Bush needed all three of these states in 2000 and two out of three in 2004 to pull out close electoral victories.  He won with 286 electoral votes in 2004 and 271 electoral votes in 2004.  McCain lost all three in 2008, and only received 173 electoral votes.

The polls showed that Obama benefited in all three states from a belief that the economy is improving, and that the worst is behind us.  A healthy majority also believe that Obama inherited the tough economic circumstances when he took office in January, 2009.

Romney continues to have problems with the female vote in all three states.  Although Romney holds a slim lead among men, he trails Obama by double digits among women.

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