On to Nevada

Senator Amy Klobuchar in Concord, NH on election night

Former Vice President Joe Biden skipped town before the polls closed in New Hampshire, but Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar stayed around to bask in her surprising Third place finish.  Senator Elizabeth Warren and Biden, two of the early Democratic front runners, finished distant fourth and fifth, respectively.  Biden's 8.4 percent share of the Democratic vote was even surpassed on the Republican side by former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld's 9.1 percent.  For those of you keeping score, President Donald Trump got 85.5 percent of the GOP vote, compared to former President Ronald Reagan's 86 percent in 1984.

The race now moves to the Nevada caucuses on February 22nd and the South Carolina primary on February 29th.  Biden is banking on a strong showing in Nevada, followed by a win in South Carolina, but the strength of former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Klobuchar may put a big dent in the Bidenmobile.  Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Biden appeal to a similar demographic on the political spectrum (they're the perceived moderates, whereas Senator Bernie Sanders and Warren are the liberals.)  Since Warren has had some wind taken out of her sails in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders may be in a stronger position in this fickle, momentum-driven primary process.

What's Next

New Hampshire has winnowed the Democratic field.  Businessman Andrew Yang, Colorado Senator Michael Bennett, and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick have all "suspended" (dropped out) their campaigns.  On the Republican side, former Congressman Joe Walsh dropped out before New Hampshire, but Weld will continue his long-shot effort.

Biden has a 3.5 percent lead in the Realclearpolitics.com average over Sanders, but there has been no serious polling done in Nevada in over a month.  Back when the last polls were taken, in early January, Biden was leading in almost all national polls and the public had not seen his poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.  There has also been an apparent drop in Biden's African American support, a key constituency for Biden, and a group that can make up to 60 percent of South Carolina Democratic primary voters.

Stay tuned for a special onevotecounts campaign diary with a heck of a lot of photos.

As Goes Dixville Notch, so Goes the Nation

Dixville Notch polling place

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire may have the first say in the nation in Presidential politics, but it is certainly not the last.  The tiny hamlet in Northern New Hampshire, just a few miles from the Canadian border cast their ballots in the Presidential election and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg won on both sides. 

After failing to secure a single vote in Dixville Notch, President Donald Trump immediately tweeted that the residents of Dixville Notch are "stupid" and should "good back to Canada."  Just kidding.

Dixville Notch

Dixville Notch first jumped into the national spotlight with its midnight voting in the 1960 Presidential election, when then-Vice President Richard Nixon shut out Senator John Kennedy nine to zip.  Since then, the residents of Dixville Notch continue to vote in the Presidential primary and general elections at the stroke of midnight.  They vote, the polls are closed, they count the votes, and then they announce about 10 minutes after midnight.  As always, the voters are greatly outnumbered by members of the media.

The voting takes place on the grounds of The Balsams, a beautiful 11,000-acre mountain resort originally built-in 1875.  Until this year, the voting took place in the main building of the resort, which has been shuttered since new owners took over in 2011.  The new owners have been trying to obtain financing to renovate and expand the resort's ski area.  As of last night, none of the expansion or renovation has begun, and it was a very eerie feeling driving up to and passing the shuttered resort.  Civilization re-appeared when we saw lights, about fifty cars parked alongside the road, and the satellite news trucks.

Bloomberg wins

Bloomberg garnered the only vote on the Republican side and two of the four votes on the Democratic side.  Senator Bernie Sanders and Mayor Pete Buttigieg both captured a single vote.  The Bloomberg votes were write-ins, because Bloomberg entered the race too late to qualify for the New Hampshire primary. (There were 33 candidates on the Democratic side and 17 on the Republican side.)

Bloomberg has pretty much ignored New Hampshire, unlike the multitude of candidates who hve been holding events throughout the state for more than a year.  Bloomberg has, however, spent over $200 million on television advertising, primarily in Super Tuesday states.  (Super Tuesday is the Super Bowl of primary days, where more than one-third of the Democratic delegates are up for grabs in states like Texas, Virginia, California, and Massachusetts.  Super Tuesday is March 3rd this year.)

The results of Dixville Notch are not always are a good predictor of who will win the nomination, and if you don't believe us, just ask President Wesley Clark (he won in 2004) and President John Kasich (he won in 2016,) but the votes and the interviews afterward are telling.  The fact that Bloomberg won both sides as a "write-in" candidate shows at least some dissatisfaction with the major candidates on the Democratic side and President Trump.  We know it's a very small statistical sample, but the fact that Bloomberg is on the minds of the voters in this small hamlet in extreme Northern New Hampshire shows that the millions of dollars that Bloomberg is pouring into advertising is having an effect.

Stay tuned.  We're off to see Andrew Yang.

On the ground in New Hampshire

Hopefully, the rain won't hurt the rhubarb or Mayor Pete Buttigieg's impending New Hampshire primary victory.  Buzz and I decided to do what any good reporting duo would do when inclement weather hits, we hit Castro's Backroom in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire for a cigar.  (We're not Jim Cantore and this ain't the Weather Channel.)  And by the way, for our conservative readers, despite the Castro name, we didn't find Bernie Sanders here.

Mayor Pete's momentum has seemed to slow in the daily tracking polls, but Buzz's calculations on the Univac 3000 still predict a Mayor Pete victory. Although the more intriguing stories are the rise of Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and the fall of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden.  Klobuchar is looking to finish a strong third, while Biden and Warren are looking at fourth and fifth place.  Biden is looking to salvage his campaign with a respectable showing in the Nevada caucuses (February 22nd)  and a win in the South Carolina primary (February 29th,) but New Hampshire may be the end of the road for Warren.

For a brief shining moment a few months back, Warren was looking good, but she seems to be a victim of 21st Century politics.  She is one of the best candidates on "paper," but, for better or worse, we are living in a sound bite era.  All the position papers and well-formulated policies aren't hitting home with the current voters who are more influenced by their hearts than their minds. 

Buzz has crunched the numbers, and here's his bold prediction of the order of finish in the Granite State.  Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Gabbard, and Steyer. 

We're going to hit the streets and look for some buzz. 

On the Republican side, President Donald Trump supporters have been lining up outside the arena for Trump's rally since early this morning.  Although there are 17 candidates on the Republican ballot, Buzz has predicted that Trump will see upwards of 94 percent of the Republican vote.  Former Massachusetts governor WilliamWeld will finish a distant second.  Buzz has calculated his finish at 1.7 percent of the vote.

We're going to brave the weather and hit the streets.  God willing and the creek don't rise, we'll end our day in Dixville Notch.  The votes will be in shortly after midnight from this little hamlet near the Canadian border.  All five voters cast their ballots and the votes will be counted by 12:10 AM.

Stay tuned.

We're off to New Hampshire

Mayor Pete is the guy to beat.  Even though the results of the 2020 Iowa caucuses are still a bit muddled, there are two things we learned from Iowa that are certain --- Former Vice President Joe Biden is in trouble and Pete Buttigieg came away with the big MO.

Buzz has fueled up the VW Microbus and we're off to New Hampshire to see for ourselves.  This is the third New Hampshire Presidential Primary for Buzz and me, and it may be the most exciting yet.  We look to a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters that found 62 % would rather see a giant meteor hit the Earth and wipe out human existence than see President Donald Trump re-elected on November 3rd as proof of the enthusiasm.

Recent polls in New Hampshire have shown Mayor Pete on the rise and Biden dropping like the face of the Old Man of the Mountain.  The Boston Globe/Suffolk University daily tracking poll has seen Mayor Pete rise from eight percent to 22 percent in the past week.  The same poll showed Biden drop from 24 percent to 10.  Other polls show similar trends. 

Senator Bernie Sanders, who won the 2016 Democratic primary in New Hampshire over Hillary Clinton by 22 points seems to have a ceiling and a floor in not only New Hampshire but across the country, especially with multiple candidates in the race.  Mayor Pete has risen in the numbers apparently by grabbing former Biden supporters.  Sanders's support has remained pretty steady over the last few months in New Hampshire.

Both primaries (the Republican and Democratic) are contested, with 33 candidates on the Democratic side and 17 on the Republican side.  Most of these candidates will only get a handful of votes statewide, and most of them are and will remain political unknowns.  The requirements to get on the New Hampshire Presidential Primary ballot is to file a "declaration of candidacy" and pay a $1000 fee.  Unfortunately, our good friend Vermin Supreme will grace neither the Republican or Democratic ballot this year.  He's running in 2020 as a Libertarian.  We hope to see him in New Hampshire.

Watch for entries as our trip begins.  See you in the Granite State.