On to Nevada

Senator Amy Klobuchar in Concord, NH on election night

Former Vice President Joe Biden skipped town before the polls closed in New Hampshire, but Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar stayed around to bask in her surprising Third place finish.  Senator Elizabeth Warren and Biden, two of the early Democratic front runners, finished distant fourth and fifth, respectively.  Biden's 8.4 percent share of the Democratic vote was even surpassed on the Republican side by former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld's 9.1 percent.  For those of you keeping score, President Donald Trump got 85.5 percent of the GOP vote, compared to former President Ronald Reagan's 86 percent in 1984.

The race now moves to the Nevada caucuses on February 22nd and the South Carolina primary on February 29th.  Biden is banking on a strong showing in Nevada, followed by a win in South Carolina, but the strength of former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Klobuchar may put a big dent in the Bidenmobile.  Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Biden appeal to a similar demographic on the political spectrum (they're the perceived moderates, whereas Senator Bernie Sanders and Warren are the liberals.)  Since Warren has had some wind taken out of her sails in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders may be in a stronger position in this fickle, momentum-driven primary process.

What's Next

New Hampshire has winnowed the Democratic field.  Businessman Andrew Yang, Colorado Senator Michael Bennett, and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick have all "suspended" (dropped out) their campaigns.  On the Republican side, former Congressman Joe Walsh dropped out before New Hampshire, but Weld will continue his long-shot effort.

Biden has a 3.5 percent lead in the Realclearpolitics.com average over Sanders, but there has been no serious polling done in Nevada in over a month.  Back when the last polls were taken, in early January, Biden was leading in almost all national polls and the public had not seen his poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.  There has also been an apparent drop in Biden's African American support, a key constituency for Biden, and a group that can make up to 60 percent of South Carolina Democratic primary voters.

Stay tuned for a special onevotecounts campaign diary with a heck of a lot of photos.

On the ground in New Hampshire

Hopefully, the rain won't hurt the rhubarb or Mayor Pete Buttigieg's impending New Hampshire primary victory.  Buzz and I decided to do what any good reporting duo would do when inclement weather hits, we hit Castro's Backroom in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire for a cigar.  (We're not Jim Cantore and this ain't the Weather Channel.)  And by the way, for our conservative readers, despite the Castro name, we didn't find Bernie Sanders here.

Mayor Pete's momentum has seemed to slow in the daily tracking polls, but Buzz's calculations on the Univac 3000 still predict a Mayor Pete victory. Although the more intriguing stories are the rise of Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and the fall of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden.  Klobuchar is looking to finish a strong third, while Biden and Warren are looking at fourth and fifth place.  Biden is looking to salvage his campaign with a respectable showing in the Nevada caucuses (February 22nd)  and a win in the South Carolina primary (February 29th,) but New Hampshire may be the end of the road for Warren.

For a brief shining moment a few months back, Warren was looking good, but she seems to be a victim of 21st Century politics.  She is one of the best candidates on "paper," but, for better or worse, we are living in a sound bite era.  All the position papers and well-formulated policies aren't hitting home with the current voters who are more influenced by their hearts than their minds. 

Buzz has crunched the numbers, and here's his bold prediction of the order of finish in the Granite State.  Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Gabbard, and Steyer. 

We're going to hit the streets and look for some buzz. 

On the Republican side, President Donald Trump supporters have been lining up outside the arena for Trump's rally since early this morning.  Although there are 17 candidates on the Republican ballot, Buzz has predicted that Trump will see upwards of 94 percent of the Republican vote.  Former Massachusetts governor WilliamWeld will finish a distant second.  Buzz has calculated his finish at 1.7 percent of the vote.

We're going to brave the weather and hit the streets.  God willing and the creek don't rise, we'll end our day in Dixville Notch.  The votes will be in shortly after midnight from this little hamlet near the Canadian border.  All five voters cast their ballots and the votes will be counted by 12:10 AM.

Stay tuned.

We're off to New Hampshire

Mayor Pete is the guy to beat.  Even though the results of the 2020 Iowa caucuses are still a bit muddled, there are two things we learned from Iowa that are certain --- Former Vice President Joe Biden is in trouble and Pete Buttigieg came away with the big MO.

Buzz has fueled up the VW Microbus and we're off to New Hampshire to see for ourselves.  This is the third New Hampshire Presidential Primary for Buzz and me, and it may be the most exciting yet.  We look to a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters that found 62 % would rather see a giant meteor hit the Earth and wipe out human existence than see President Donald Trump re-elected on November 3rd as proof of the enthusiasm.

Recent polls in New Hampshire have shown Mayor Pete on the rise and Biden dropping like the face of the Old Man of the Mountain.  The Boston Globe/Suffolk University daily tracking poll has seen Mayor Pete rise from eight percent to 22 percent in the past week.  The same poll showed Biden drop from 24 percent to 10.  Other polls show similar trends. 

Senator Bernie Sanders, who won the 2016 Democratic primary in New Hampshire over Hillary Clinton by 22 points seems to have a ceiling and a floor in not only New Hampshire but across the country, especially with multiple candidates in the race.  Mayor Pete has risen in the numbers apparently by grabbing former Biden supporters.  Sanders's support has remained pretty steady over the last few months in New Hampshire.

Both primaries (the Republican and Democratic) are contested, with 33 candidates on the Democratic side and 17 on the Republican side.  Most of these candidates will only get a handful of votes statewide, and most of them are and will remain political unknowns.  The requirements to get on the New Hampshire Presidential Primary ballot is to file a "declaration of candidacy" and pay a $1000 fee.  Unfortunately, our good friend Vermin Supreme will grace neither the Republican or Democratic ballot this year.  He's running in 2020 as a Libertarian.  We hope to see him in New Hampshire.

Watch for entries as our trip begins.  See you in the Granite State.

Uncle Joe is gonna run

Donald Trump's worst electoral nightmare is coming to a state near you. Buzz has been crunching data with the Univac 3000, and the results are in:  Joe Biden will run for President in 2020.  Biden needs to win the Democratic nomination first, but the blue-collar, "ordinary Joe" is just the type of candidate who has the best chance of putting Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin back in the Democratic column and sending Trump back to New York City and his "friends" at the Southern District of New York's prosecutors' office.

2016 Election was not a landslide but any stretch of the imagination

The 2016 election of Donald Trump was the perfect storm that cracked the vaunted Democratic Blue Electoral wall.  Let's look at the numbers first.

Trump did not win the popular vote, in fact, he lost it by almost three million votes, 62,980,160 to 65,845,063.  With regards to the electoral vote, he narrowly won that --- 304 to 227.  (There was an unusually large number of faithless electors --- those who vote for a candidate other than the one who won their respective states.  Colin Powell got three, and John Kasich, Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders, and Faith Spotted Owl each received one vote.)  For those of you scoring at home, you need 270 to win.  Without the faithless electors, Trump still wins 306 to 238.

The election came down to Trump's narrow victories in three of the blue wall states --- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Those 46 electoral votes went to Trump, but without them, he loses 278 to 260.  The popular vote victories in those states were Pennsylvania (44,292), Wisconsin (22,748, and Michigan (10,704), for a total of 77,744.  The victories in these three states were powered by first-time or first-time in a long time voters who overwhelmingly voted either for Trump or against Hillary Clinton.

Changing demographics put Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), and Texas (36) into play for the Democrats in 2020, so Trump will no only have to hold the three rust belt states he won in 2016 but will have to play defense in these three soon-to-be Purple states.

Why Joe's gonna run

Joe Biden would be President now if he ran against Trump in 2016.  He did not enter the race, primarily because of the tragic death of his son 46-year-old son Beau in 2015 from brain cancer.  It's a decision that we believe he regrets greatly. 

Biden ran for President twice before (1988 and 2008), but both times did poorly.  The difference this time started when he got the call from candidate Barack Obama in 2008 to be Obama's running mate.  This changed everything.  He was instantly transformed from an also-ran to a somebody.  His tenure as the "stand-by-your-man" Vice President only enhanced his stature.  He has been involved in politics for over 50 years, having been elected to the Senate from Delaware at just prior to his 30th birthday in 1972.  The political bug is in his blood and it will never leave him until the day he dies.

Being the political animal he is, Biden certainly sees the poll numbers.  Biden either leads or is at the top of every Democratic Presidential preference poll and leads Trump in every electoral state that is going to make the difference in 2020.  Yes, a lot of this has to do with name recognition, but Biden is not only well known, but he is very well liked, despite his propensity to make a major gaffe now and then.  Actually, his gaffe-making adds to his genuineness.

Biden also polls very well with the blue-collar workers (the Reagan Democrats) who got up off their couches and cast a vote for Trump in the crucial states.  Hillary never made a connection with these voters in 2016.  They were never enthused enough and Trump seemed like someone who felt their plight.  Biden has the same effect on these voters, albeit not as strong as Trump did in 2016, but enough to make the difference in 2020.

For these major factors, Biden will run, and why not --- he loves the political arena, and for the first time in his political career (2016 doesn't count,) he actually has a pretty clear path to the White House.  As far as the age issue, Trump will be 74 on election day 2020 and Biden turns 78 17 days after election day 2020.  Biden is in good health, and besides, they say that 70 is the new 50, so Biden is only 56 years old right now.

So Biden's options are to sit on the sidelines and rue the 2016 decision not to run or follow the political animal blood in his veins and jump back into the political arena with much more than a Don Quixote chance at becoming President.  The Univac 3000 says he's in and so do Buzz and I.