Saturday, November 3, 2012

Obama will be re-elected, so says the Univac 3000

After a 60 hour power loss caused by the second 100 year storm in the past two years, Buzz has the Univac 3000 up and running and we're ready to post the OVC Presidential election prediction.  It's Obama in a relatively close popular vote but a rather comfortable electoral win.

It looked a bit scary for Democrats after Barack Obama mailed in the first debate, but although Mitt Romney surged, he never quite overtook Obama.  Romney's "Mittmentum" has disappeared, and Super Storm Sandy pushed a good portion of the undecideds to Obama.  The Univac 3000 calculates that the Sandy factor may account for up to a percentage point gain, which in this election is a heckuva lot, for Obama.

There have been no great swings in this election cycle, and neither candidate has broken that 50 percent mark in national polls, but then again, neither candidate has fall below 45 percent either. Face it, we live in a polarized nation where up to 90 percent of the electorate falls into the unpersuadable category.  This has wreaked havoc on the aging circuits of the Univac 3000.

This may come as a shock to our Republican friends, but not everybody thinks Obama is a Communist or the anti-Christ or hates this country, maybe just 45 percent do.  It may also come as a shock to our Democratic friends that not everybody realizes that Romney is a snake oil salesman, hell bent on his latest business conquest - the Presidency.  Again, only 45 percent understand this.

With that said, let's move on to the predictions.

Safe Romney (191)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).

Safe Obama (241)

California (55), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3),
Washington (12).

The leaning Obama states put him at 271

This leaves 110 electoral votes up for grabs, but as we all can see Obama is much closer to the 270 prize.  Some of the remaining states are very, very close, but a few others are relatively certain.

North Carolina (15) will fall into the Romney column, bringing him to 206.  Likewise, Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), and Ohio (18) have been consistently polling in favor of Obama, and there is no reason to think they will jump into the Romney column at the last minute.  This puts Obama at 271, which is more than enough, but we still have a few more states to discuss.

First, a few notes on the four we just pushed into their respective columns.

Hispanic Vote and the New South

This is the last election where Nevada will even arguably be a toss up state.  Until the GOP stops the vitriolic anti-immigrant rhetoric, they will continue to get swamped in the Hispanic vote. George W. Bush got 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004.  Romney (the self-deportation candidate) will be lucky to break 28 percent.

The Hispanic vote is the fastest growing minority vote in the nation, and the GOP is on the wrong side of this.  Not only will this knock out Nevada, but watch for Arizona to be in play in four years, and Texas to be competitive in eight. (Remember, the anti-immigrant Proposition 187 which passed in California in 1994, solidified the Hispanic vote in California and destroyed any chance the GOP had of capturing this electoral rich state.)

North Carolina is a state which is fighting to shed its Old South image.  The state which regularly elected Jesse Helms to the Senate is now competitive and will only become more competitive for Democrats as the population grows with an influx of Northern moderates and liberals.  Unfortunately for Obama, old habits die hard, and there is still a lot of the Old South in this state.

New Hampshire and Iowa

It is a bit ironic that the two states which start this whole insane process with the first caucus and first primary are still in the too close to call column.  You would think that they would have made up their mind much sooner, because the 2016 campaign begins November 7, 2012.

Iowa (6) has been consistently polling in Obama's favor, so we see no reason why it would unexpectedly shift to Romney. New Hampshire (4), location of one of the many Romney homes, has been all over the map, but recently has been polling in Obama's favor.  The Univac 3000 gives it to Obama.

Colorado and Virginia

Colorado (9) and Virginia (13) has been true toss up states.  They were solidly GOP until Obama snatched them in 2008, and the Univac 3000 puts them in the Obama column again.

Colorado is another state which has a quickly growing Hispanic population, and as we've mentioned before, this does not bode well for the GOP.  Romney pulled ahead in polling in this state after the first debate, but the growing Hispanic population will self-deport Colorado's 9 electoral votes out of the Romney column and right into Obama's lap.

Virginia is a battle of three states.  Northern Virginia (the DC suburbs) and a few other urban areas are solidly Obama, the Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads area is split, and the rest of the state is solidly Romney.

The Obama campaign is pushing for a big margin in its strongholds, as is Romney in his strongholds, so it comes down to the military friendly Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Road area.  Romney has pandered to this area to such a great degree that it has paled in comparison to his regular pandering.  We are surprised that Romney doesn't arrive in the Newport News shipyard in a battleship.

With all of this said, the Univac 3000 predicts Obama's margins in Northern Virginia will be too much for Admiral Romney to overcome.

Florida, Florida, Florida

It may be Florida, Florida, Florida, but it won't be decisive, decisive, decisive this year.  Florida is the battleground state, which despite its 29 electoral votes just doesn't matter anymore.  The Democrats and Obama have expanded the map so much that Florida will not play the pivotal role it played in 2000 when the Supreme Court awarded it to Bush and made him the 43rd President.

On a fair playing field, the Univac 3000 would award Florida to Obama, however, GOP Governor Rick Scott and the GOP apparatus in the legislature and State agencies have tilted the field in Romney's favor.  Voter purges, restrictive voter registration laws which pushed even the League of Women Voters out of the voter registration business in the state (overturned by the Courts, but too late,) and cutbacks on early voting have severely hurt Obama's chances in the Sunshine State.

The Univac 3000 gives Florida to Romney, not because he won the battle of ideas in the Sunshine State, but because the GOP was able to keep enough Democratic leaning voters away from the polls.

Obama 303, Romney 235

Our prediction is 303 for Obama and 235 for Romney.  The Univac 3000 puts the popular vote total at 50.5 percent for Obama and 48 percent for Romney.  1.5 percent will cast their ballots for a third party candidate.