The one word that explains Trump 2016 victory: Hillary

Two plus years later, Buzz and I have come to a definitive conclusion.  Donald Trump won the Presidency for one reason and one reason only --- Hillary Clinton.  Bernie Sanders or even Martin O'Malley, Lincoln Chafee, or Tim Webb (yeah the three other Democratic candidates) would be touting the title of the 45th President of the United States.

The Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy

It took some time to realize exactly how bad of a candidate Hillary actually was.  It doesn't have anything to do with Benghazi or the missing emails.  They were made-up BS scandals that were disregarded by a vast majority of American voters, and remember, Hillary did beat Trump by over three million votes.  What it really came down to was what Hillary talked about 25 years ago --- the "vast right-wing conspiracy."  (Well maybe not vast, but persistent as all hell.)

For years and years, the GOP has been railing against Hillary Clinton.  The fact that she is not the warm and fuzzy candidate like her husband Bill made it easier for the attacks to stick.  Even good liberals had serious trouble warming up to her (hence the Feel the Bern.)  (And for those of you who believe Bernie got burned by the Democratic National Committee (DNC,) remember this, Hillary still kicked his butt in the popular primary vote and all those rules which favored Hillary had been in place for years --- they weren't changed mid-stream by Debbie Wasserman-Schultz or any other nefarious DNC figure.)

Don't get us wrong, we believe Hillary would have been a very good President, certainly much better than Trump could ever be, but even Buzz and I never really warmed to her.  She would have been an overly-hard worker who wouldn't continually embarrass the office home and abroad.  She also would not have prided herself in ignorance to all things Presidential.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania

Trump won in 2016 because the Founding Fathers set up this crazy thing called the Electoral College, a system which gives a disproportionate advantage to smaller states.  (Electoral votes are based on Congressional representation (one vote for each member of the House and one for each Senator.)  That's kind of fair for the House numbers, but totally undemocratic for the Senate number.  The state of Wyoming gets one electoral vote for 300,000 people on the Senate side, whereas California gets one electoral vote for 20,000,000 million people.  In other words, all things being equal, the California equivalent would be about 67 Senate based electoral votes.

Because of the Electoral College set up, Trump was able to win the Presidency by getting pluralities in three states --- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The margin in these three states was 77,744 votes.  Trump's victory was the perfect storm of Electoral politics.  The big question is, can he repeat the perfect storm in 2020, that is if he survives until then.  Short of impeachment, Trump will win the Republican primary without any significant opposition.  A good majority of Republican voters have retreated to such a fact-free bubble that Trump could "shoot someone on 5th Avenue" and get away with it.  Their bubble is so impenetrable that only alternative facts get in.

It was highly unlikely that Trump could have pulled Electoral College magic out of his hat in 2016, but 2020 is even more unlikely.  He also has to worry about losing states like Arizona, and maybe even Texas this time around.  2018 saw major statewide wins for Democrats in 2018 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  Pennsylvania saw its incumbent Democratic Governor win by 17 points and its incumbent Democratic Senator win by 13 points.  Michigan had a Democratic defeat a GOPer in an open seat for Governor by 10 points and incumbent Democratic Senator win by seven points.  Wisconsin saw its two-term incumbent GOP Governor lose by one point and its incumbent Democratic Senator win by 11 points.

2020 Presidential Race

The Presidential Primary season begins in about 11 months, and there are already enough Democratic candidates to field an NFL team, with a least a few more guaranteed to enter the fray.  Trump will get some opposition, but as for the reasons mentioned above, unless he's impeached, he will be the Republican nominee in 2020.  He has insulated himself so well that even in the Robert Mueller report says Trump should be indicted, only an impeachment vote by the Senate (and that would require 20 GOP Senators to join the Democrats to vote for impeachment) would derail Trump's re-election.

The other problem Trump faces in 2020 is that fact that the voters who fueled his narrow 2016 victory were either first-time voters or voters who had not voted in any recent Presidential elections.  Sure some of them will vote again, but at least half of this usually apathetic group of voters will not venture to the polls again in high enough numbers to fuel another Trump electoral win.

So as long as Hillary does not win the Democratic nomination, Trump will not be in the White House come the afternoon of January 20, 2021, and to paraphrase Gerald Ford, "our long national nightmare will be over."

2016 Election Preview

Sorry to cut to the chase, but Bill Clinton will be back in the White House as the First Man on January 20, 2017.  Hilary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2016 for President of the United States.  She will also be the prohibitive favorite to win the Presidency.

I can predict this without even Buzz and the Univac 3000.  (Remember, Buzz is on assignment in Colorado and Washington.  His return date, and that of the Univac 3000 is still unknown.)

We can give a little time to the Democratic nomination process.

Democratic Primaries 2016

Once Hillary announces, which will be sometime in the summer of 2015, all serious competition should evaporate.  The 2016 Democratic primary season will be almost as exciting as the 2012 Democratic primaries, although the incarcerated felon might not be on the ballot in West Virginia this time around.

 

All the serious contenders like Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, and the 55 or so incumbent Democratic Senators will sit this one out.  We may see a Dennis Kucinich type get his or her name on the ballot in a few states, but for all intents and purposes, the 2016 Democratic nomination process will basically be Hillary running as an incumbent.

 

With regards to Vice President Joe Biden, Democrats love Biden, but not as President.  Maybe he'll do another eight at VP.  I understand he loves the Naval Observatory.

GOP Primaries 2016

 

If you enjoyed 2012, the 2016 GOP primaries will be a blast.  We'll see some of the usual suspects, along with some fresh new faces who sat out 2012.

 

Former PA Senator Rick Santorum will be back for a curtain call.  Remember the GOP has a habit of nominating the first runner up in subsequent elections.  (Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, John McCain in 2008, and Mitt Romney in 2012.)

 

Santorum is the GOP heir apparent, and aint nobody gonna tell him he aint. I understand that he has already bought a home  on the Iowa State Fairgrounds and has set up a deep fried butter and kool-aid stand.

Showman Donald Trump will again toy with the idea of seeking the GOP nomination, but will have to drop out when it is discovered he was not born in USA, but on the planet Oranganium.

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will make another, but drop out before the Iowa straw poll this time.  He will also be on the VP short list, but will be passed over yet again.  Always a bridesmaid, never a bride.

Texas Governor for life Rick Perry will not run for three reasons.  One, he can't find that Brokeback Mountain jacket he used in his TV commercials, two, poor debate performances, and three,...umh......ahhh...............Oooops.

Former House Speaker Newton Leroy Gingrich just doesn't have the Newtmentum this time around, and Sheldon Adelson might not make it to 2016 due to his health or an FBI investigation into a hit being placed on Karl Rove.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal is still reeling from that almost comical State of the Union response a few years back.  I can just envision the commercials of him walking out of the shadows in that Southern mansion time and time again, set to some creepy Halloween music. 

But, on a serious note.  Watch Florida, but not for Senator Marco Rubio.  If his grand foreign policy speech of this past Fall is any indication of his foreign policy gravitas, he's "not ready for prime time."  

 

Former Florida Governor and brother of W., Jeb Bush has pushed the big tent theory especially with Hispanics, and he is George W. without the cowboy and an elevator that goes to the top floor.

Everybody says New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, but unless the GOP makes a sharp turn to the middle, Christie will never make it through the GOP primary and caucus process. There's a large part of the GOP that will blame the 2012 loss on Mittens being a moderate and not conservative enough.  Christie will be seen as Mitt 2.0.

Bubba is back!

Bill Clinton stormed into Charlotte last night and brought down the house. He's back, and take it from Buzz and me, he's here to stay.

It was pure Bill Clinton --- dramatic, inspiring, persuasive, folksy, and of course, way longer than planned.  But, most importantly, it was directed to the middle of the electorate, a part of the electorate where Bill Clinton has always been effective in communicating his message.

He set the stage with one of the most memorable moments of his speech, he explained that the hyper-partisanship and personal attacks against him that plagued much of his Presidency, did not leave him bitter.  He said, "Though I often disagree with Republicans, I never learned to hate them the way the far right that now controls their party seems to hate President Obama and the Democrats."

Clinton's speech which lasted 48 minutes was the most effective defense and explanation of the Obama record.  Unlike New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's "me, me, and ME" speech at last weeks GOP convention, Clinton's speech was heavy on his party's nominee.  He brilliantly intertwined his legacy with the Presidency of Barack Obama, and then took on every major GOP argument and explained, in simple, folksy terms, why the GOP argument is wrong.

In a stern, but no means angry tone, Clinton said, "President Obama started with a much weaker economy than I did. No president— not me or any of my predecessors could have repaired all the damage in just four years."

He explained the Affordable Care Act in simple and effective terms, highlighting many of the Act's very popular parts. He explained the recovery act and how it truly helped the US avoid a Great Depression.  He explained the success of the auto bailout and the tragic consequences of letting "Detroit go bankrupt."


His systematic attack on the GOP arguments included this:  "Now, when Congressman Ryan looked into that TV camera and attacked President Obama’s Medicare savings as, quote, “the biggest, coldest power play,” I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry... because that $716 billion is exactly to the dollar the same amount of Medicare savings that he has in his own budget!"

Then he went off script and gave perhaps the most memorable line of the speech.  "You got to give (Ryan) one thing: It takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did."


Clinton hit a home run and lived up to expectations.  He is Obama's greatest surrogate, and we will see a lot of him in the next 60 days.

Hillary 2016

Clinton is not just acting altruistically, although we don't doubt that he truly believes in most, if not all of the Obama agenda.  Clinton does have a selfish motive, too  --- Hillary 2016.

I am convinced, and Buzz's Univac 3000 bears me out on this, Hillary will run in 2016 regardless of who wins in 2012.

Bill wins no matter who wins in 2012.  If Obama wins, Bill will humbly take credit for making the difference.  If Obama losses, Bill can also humbly say that he gave it the old college try.

Hillary has already said she will step down at the end of her four year tenure at the State Department.  She has been an unqualified success at State, and now she needs to start preparing for 2016.

Hillary will take it easy for a few months, and then expect to see her all over the country.  She won't be an official candidate until mid 2015, but she will be provided enthusiastic support for Democratic candidates everywhere.  Whether it's recording TV or radio spots, speaking at Jefferson-Jackson dinners, raising money, Hillary Clinton will be around every corner.  She will be the biggest cheerleader for any Democrat who wants her, and want her they will.

Stay tuned for a lot of Bill over the next few months, and then coming to political events everywhere, sometime next summer, Hillary Clinton.