Why Romney Lost, The Redux

Mitt Romney may have lost the election, because he was not a true Conservative. We had concluded last week that Romney lost because his Conservative message was rejected by the voters.  Now we feel compelled to offer caveat in "Why Romney Lost, The Redux."

Just to be perfectly clear, we do not believe a true conservative would have won, because the country has drifted away from their agenda.  We do not live in, as we are told by many, a "center right" country.  As a whole, the country is pretty much middle of the road, not drinking the kool-aid on either extreme of the political spectrum.

Die hard conservatives never really trusted Mittens, because we believe as they do, that deep down, Mittens is a moderate Republican.  The self-branded "severely conservative" governor tried his darndest to talk the conservative talk, but could never walk the conservative walk.  When it comes right down to it, you gotta be a true believer to spout off the bat-shit crazy conservative talking points with a straight face.

Evangelical Conservatives

The statistical post election analysis has shown us that 3,000,000 fewer evangelicals showed up in 2012 compared to 2008.  This is due to two interesting factors. 

First of all, there is a significant number of evangelicals who really do believe Mormonism is a cult.  Buzz and I were cornered by one such young, attractive evangelical on a 5 hour flight to Seattle this past summer.  She spent a good hour of the flight explaining to us why Mormonism is a cult. 

Buzz and I are not ones to use anecdotal evidence to prove a broad proposition, but we do believe if you find one Mediterranean Fruit Fly in a California avocado, there may be a million more lurking in the orchard. Romney never addressed his Mormonism ala John Kennedy's seminal speech on Catholicism in the 1960 Presidential campaign or Barack Obama's speech on race in 2008.  Romney never addressed the 800 pound gorilla in the room.

Secondly, Romney was Pro-Choice in 1994 when he ran against Ted Kennedy.  The Anti-Choice (Pro-Life) movement doesn't take kindly to anyone over the age of 10 who hasn't recognized the "self evident fact" that all abortion is murder.

We are not naive enough to believe that this group would ever vote for Obama, but the evidence has shown, time and time again, that this group will stay home on election day.  It is sometimes easier to just turn a blind eye to something.  This group has been turning a blind eye to science for years, so turning a blind eye to the election is not that much of a stretch. 

It's the way you tell 'em

Romney's other problem is best illustrated by the following classic joke.

In prison for the first time, George was puzzled by a strange ritual that was carried out at night immediately after the lights were turned off. Someone from another cell called out "Thirty-seven" and the whole block burst out laughing.
      
A few moments later another distant voice called out "Sixty-one" and again everyone laughed.
      
"What do the numbers mean?" George asked his cellmate.
      
"Down in the prison library there's a big joke book. We've memorized all the jokes. So now when anybody wants to tell a joke, they just have to shout out the page number from the book."
      
George was intrigued and the next day he studied the joke book in the prison library, writing down the numbers of a few good jokes so that he could join in the fun that evening.
      
That night, George decided to take the initiative. Once the lights had gone off, he called out "Fifty-five." But instead of laughter there was silence. So he tried again. "Eighty-seven." Again there was an eerie silence.
      
He asked his cellmate: "Why is it that when I call out the numbers, nobody laughs?" 


His cellmate said: "It's the way you tell 'em."        

Romney just never was able to "tell 'em." Yeah, he memorized the lines, but even non-conservatives saw that there was something missing.

Vice Presidential nominee Congressman Paul Ryan was a different story.  He is a true believer.  Unlike Romney, Ryan was brought up in the Ronald Reagan era, when the moderate Republicans began their swan song. Ryan lives, eats, and breaths conservative dogma, so to him it just naturally rolls off his lips.

**** Buzz did not participate in this post.  He is on assignment in Colorado and Washington state.  His return date is unknown. ****  

Bubba is back!

Bill Clinton stormed into Charlotte last night and brought down the house. He's back, and take it from Buzz and me, he's here to stay.

It was pure Bill Clinton --- dramatic, inspiring, persuasive, folksy, and of course, way longer than planned.  But, most importantly, it was directed to the middle of the electorate, a part of the electorate where Bill Clinton has always been effective in communicating his message.

He set the stage with one of the most memorable moments of his speech, he explained that the hyper-partisanship and personal attacks against him that plagued much of his Presidency, did not leave him bitter.  He said, "Though I often disagree with Republicans, I never learned to hate them the way the far right that now controls their party seems to hate President Obama and the Democrats."

Clinton's speech which lasted 48 minutes was the most effective defense and explanation of the Obama record.  Unlike New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's "me, me, and ME" speech at last weeks GOP convention, Clinton's speech was heavy on his party's nominee.  He brilliantly intertwined his legacy with the Presidency of Barack Obama, and then took on every major GOP argument and explained, in simple, folksy terms, why the GOP argument is wrong.

In a stern, but no means angry tone, Clinton said, "President Obama started with a much weaker economy than I did. No president— not me or any of my predecessors could have repaired all the damage in just four years."

He explained the Affordable Care Act in simple and effective terms, highlighting many of the Act's very popular parts. He explained the recovery act and how it truly helped the US avoid a Great Depression.  He explained the success of the auto bailout and the tragic consequences of letting "Detroit go bankrupt."


His systematic attack on the GOP arguments included this:  "Now, when Congressman Ryan looked into that TV camera and attacked President Obama’s Medicare savings as, quote, “the biggest, coldest power play,” I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry... because that $716 billion is exactly to the dollar the same amount of Medicare savings that he has in his own budget!"

Then he went off script and gave perhaps the most memorable line of the speech.  "You got to give (Ryan) one thing: It takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did."


Clinton hit a home run and lived up to expectations.  He is Obama's greatest surrogate, and we will see a lot of him in the next 60 days.

Hillary 2016

Clinton is not just acting altruistically, although we don't doubt that he truly believes in most, if not all of the Obama agenda.  Clinton does have a selfish motive, too  --- Hillary 2016.

I am convinced, and Buzz's Univac 3000 bears me out on this, Hillary will run in 2016 regardless of who wins in 2012.

Bill wins no matter who wins in 2012.  If Obama wins, Bill will humbly take credit for making the difference.  If Obama losses, Bill can also humbly say that he gave it the old college try.

Hillary has already said she will step down at the end of her four year tenure at the State Department.  She has been an unqualified success at State, and now she needs to start preparing for 2016.

Hillary will take it easy for a few months, and then expect to see her all over the country.  She won't be an official candidate until mid 2015, but she will be provided enthusiastic support for Democratic candidates everywhere.  Whether it's recording TV or radio spots, speaking at Jefferson-Jackson dinners, raising money, Hillary Clinton will be around every corner.  She will be the biggest cheerleader for any Democrat who wants her, and want her they will.

Stay tuned for a lot of Bill over the next few months, and then coming to political events everywhere, sometime next summer, Hillary Clinton.