Monday, November 3, 2008

Final Electoral Update

Here’s our final electoral update. Buzz has been crunching numbers all night. (Well most of the night, because he’s also been recording robo calls for Bob Barr.) We have seen a 1.5 percent gain in the RCP national average in the last few days. More importantly, the numbers in the battleground states have not moved to McCain.

If we start with the Kerry states (252) electoral votes, OVC does not see any of these turning to the McCain camp. McCain had his eyes on PA, but the numbers have not moved by any significant way towards McCain. There are four new PA polls today. Obama leads in all of them by 6 to 14 points. In all of these polls, Obama is at or over 52 percent. In other words, McCain will still lose PA if he wins all the undecided voters.

Add to the 252 electoral votes, 7 votes from Iowa (15.3 RCP Average), 5 votes from New Mexico (7.3 RCP Average), 5 votes from Nevada (6.2 RCP Average), and 9 votes from Colorado (5.5 RCP Average) and Obama has 278. Remember 270 is the magic number. So Obama wins without Florida, Ohio, or Virginia. When we add in Virginia (13 EV, 4.3 RCP Average) and Ohio (20 EV, 3.2 RCP Average) Obama gets to 303. Florida (27 EV, 1.8 RCP Average) and Obama hits 330.

McCain’s road to victory has been washed out. For him to win, McCain would have to win every one of the toss up states, and overcome deficits in five out of seven states where Obama leads.

Here are our categories. Safe is defined as an average poll lead of 10.0 points or more, Solid is a poll average of 5.0 points to 9.9 points, and Leaning is defined as 3.0 to 4.9 point average lead. Toss Up states are defined as a state which either candidate leads by less than a 3.0 poll average.

Our 2008 Presidential Election Prediction, where we will pick both the electoral vote total and the popular vote total, is at the end of the article.

Safe Obama (228)

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10).

Solid Obama (50)

Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21).

Leaning Obama (33)

Ohio (20), Virginia (13).

Safe McCain (118)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3).

Solid McCain (14)

Arkansas (6), South Dakota (3), West Virginia (5).

Leaning McCain (28)

Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Montana (3).

Toss Up (67)

Florida (27), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3).

Solid Obama and Safe Obama (278) Solid and Safe McCain (132)

Obama with Leaners (311) McCain with Leaners (160)

Now here’s our final prediction Obama 364 electoral votes, McCain 174 electoral votes. We believe Indiana and North Carolina will go to Obama, and Missouri will go in a squeaker to McCain. Our prediction on the popular vote is Obama 53 percent, McCain 46 percent, Others 1 percent.

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