Friday, November 7, 2008

OVC Hits a Bullseye

Let the word go forth, from this time and place, that OVC called the electoral vote and popular vote correctly on October 21st and in each and every electoral update through election day.
Now Buzz is reprogramming his UNIVAC 3000 to predict NFL games get recoup his monetary losses on a Bob Barr presidency.

Starting with the October 21st electoral update, we said the popular vote would be 53 percent for Obama and 46% for McCain. We also predicted 364 electoral votes for Obama and 174 for McCain. It just goes to show you the accuracy of polling averages. Our analysis was based primarily on RCP averages in both national and state polls, however it did not end there. Most of the states were not really in doubt since the end of September when McCain started a nose dive in the polls, however Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Nevada were close calls.

The following are the October 21st RCP averages [final RCP average] (final results): MO Obama 2.7 [McCain 0.7] (McCain 0.2), NC Obama 1.5 [McCain 0.4] (Obama 0.4), OH Obama + 2.8 [Obama 2.5] (Obama 4.0), FL Obama 2.0 [Obama +1.8] (Obama +2.5), Virgina Obama 8.0 [Obama 4.4] (Obama 4.5), NV Obama 2.3 [Obama 6.5] (Obama 12.5). By the way, we never believed that Pennsylvania was in play for McCain, but McCain had to believe it was if he had any reasonable chance to win.

The two most difficult calls were MO and NC. Even though the October 21st numbers showed Obama ahead in MO, we had real trouble seeing that lead hold for Obama. We almost switched NC to McCain when the polls began to drift in McCain's favor. The magnitude of the Obama victory in Nevada was an emphasis of Obama's strength in the Hispanic community.

Over the next few weeks, we will engage in some Wednesday morning quarterbacking, looking back at 2008 in an attempt to explain how Obama won it or McCain lost it. We will, of course, dedicate some time to one of our favorite subjects --- Governor Sarah Palin. Buzz will also explain why Bob Barr didn't carry a state.

No comments: