Monday, October 6, 2008

Four More Weeks!

Things are looking bad for John McCain. Just as the economy is taking a beating, so are McCain’s poll numbers. Perhaps this explains why McCain has attempted to turn the focus from the economy to a barrage of negative attacks on Obama. In the past, I’ve questioned if the John McCain of 2000 would vote for the John McCain of 2008. Now I’m beginning to question whether the “high road” John McCain of earlier this year would vote for the “low road” John McCain of October.

Safe Obama States: (264)

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10).

Leaning Obama (69)

Colorado (9), Florida (27), Ohio (20), Virginia (13).

Safe McCain States (158)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3).

Leaning McCain (5)

West Virginia (5).

Toss Up (42)

Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15),

Solid Obama and Leaning Obama (333)

Solid and Leaning McCain (163)

The major developments this week are Obama continually improving poll numbers in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Florida and Ohio are now moving out of the margin of error zone and into leaning to Obama. Two other points of note: The polling trends show that Virginia is on the cusp of Lean Obama and Solid Obama, and Georgia is also on the cusp of turning into a Lean McCain state after a long period of time in the Safe McCain camp.

I expect, as we are beginning to see three things --- Negative Campaigning, Negative Campaigning, and Negative Campaigning. To paraphrase Bette Davis, “Fasten your seat belts. It’s gonna be a bumpy October.”

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