Tuesday, October 7, 2008

What if The States Starting Registering Voters and No Republicans Showed Up?

Based on the newly registered Democratic and Independent voter numbers in eight battleground states, if this were a boxing match, the referee would stop it. What happened to that formidable Republican Ground Game? It certainly hasn't shown up when it comes to voter registration. The Washington Post listed new voter registration numbers in eight battleground states, and the numbers are dismal news for John McCain and Sarah Palin.
In Florida, there are 316,000 new Democratic registrations and 155,000 new Independent registrations compared to 129,000 new Republican registrations. North Carolina numbers made the Florida numbers look good for McCain ---- 208,000 new Dems, 148 new independents, but only 34,000 new Republicans.
Nevada and Colorado had similar numbers. Nevada saw 91,000 new Democrats, 26,000 new Independents, and 22,000 new Republicans. Democrats now have an 81,000 voter registration edge over the Democrats. Bush won Nevada in 2004 by 21,000 votes, at a time when registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats. Colorado saw 80,000 new Democrats, 28,000 new Independents, and only 21,000 Republicans.
Bush won New Mexico in 2004 by 6,000 votes. Now there are 40,000 new Democrats as compared to 12,000 new Republicans. Virginia and Missouri do not register voters by parties, but both states saw tremendous gains in registration in traditional Democratic strongholds, while the Republican areas of the states did not see similar gains.
Perhaps most shocking were the Pennsylvania numbers. In a must win state for John McCain, Democrats gained 474,000 new voters, while the Republicans lost 38,000 voters since 2004.
There are two caveats to this good news for Obama. First, many of these voters registered to vote in the Democratic primary when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton engaged in a heated battle. Second, not all these registered voters will vote. With that said, the sheer number difference between Republicans and Democrats is staggering, and even half of these new voters show up on election day, there numbers are enough to change Red states Blue. In Pennsylvania's case, it really makes Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes look like a pipe dream for John McCain.

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