Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The Next To The Last Electoral Update

With six days to go we have yet to see the long anticipated John McCain surge. Barack Obama has seen a slight decline (maybe 1.5 points) in the Realclearpolitics national average. Tonight marks the 30 minute Obama infomercial. McCain does not have the money to counter punch.

The surprises or states which jump out at us because they have changed categories from last week are Arizona and South Dakota falling from Safe McCain to only Solid McCain. And even more shocking is that Ohio has moved from Toss-Up to Solid Obama.

Here are our categories. Safe is defined as an average poll lead of 10.0 points or more, Solid is a poll average of 5.0 points to 9.9 points, and Leaning is defined as 3.0 to 4.9 point average lead. Toss Up states are defined as a state which either candidate leads by less than a 3.0 poll average. For those of you not as electorally savvy as Buzz or me, the magic number is 270 electoral votes.

Our 2008 Presidential Election Prediction, where we will pick both the electoral vote total and the popular vote total, is at the end of the article.

Safe Obama (259)

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10).

Solid Obama (52)

Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13).

Leaning Obama (27)

Florida (27).

Safe McCain (124)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3).

Solid McCain (18)

Arizona (10), South Dakota (3), West Virginia (5).

Leaning McCain (21)

Georgia (15), Montana (3), North Dakota (3).

Toss Up (37)

Indiana (11), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15).

Solid Obama and Safe Obama (311) Solid and Safe McCain (142)

Obama with Leaners (338) McCain with Leaners (163)

Now here’s the 6 day out prediction Obama 364 electoral votes, McCain 174 electoral votes. We believe Indiana and North Carolina will go to Obama, and Missouri will go in a squeaker to McCain. Our prediction on the popular vote is Obama 53 percent, McCain 46 percent, Others 1 percent.

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